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calculate.ts
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calculate.ts
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import { maxBy } from 'lodash'
import { Bet, LimitBet } from './bet'
import {
calculateCpmmSale,
getCpmmProbability,
getCpmmOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet,
getCpmmProbabilityAfterSale,
calculateCpmmSharesAfterFee,
} from './calculate-cpmm'
import {
calculateDpmPayout,
calculateDpmPayoutAfterCorrectBet,
calculateDpmSaleAmount,
calculateDpmShares,
getDpmOutcomeProbability,
getDpmProbability,
getDpmOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet,
getDpmProbabilityAfterSale,
} from './calculate-dpm'
import { calculateFixedPayout } from './calculate-fixed-payouts'
import {
Contract,
BinaryContract,
FreeResponseContract,
PseudoNumericContract,
MultipleChoiceContract,
} from './contract'
import { floatingEqual } from './util/math'
export function getProbability(
contract: BinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract
) {
return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1'
? getCpmmProbability(contract.pool, contract.p)
: getDpmProbability(contract.totalShares)
}
export function getInitialProbability(
contract: BinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract
) {
if (contract.initialProbability) return contract.initialProbability
if (contract.mechanism === 'dpm-2' || (contract as any).totalShares)
// use totalShares to calculate prob for ported contracts
return getDpmProbability(
(contract as any).phantomShares ?? (contract as any).totalShares
)
return getCpmmProbability(contract.pool, contract.p)
}
export function getOutcomeProbability(contract: Contract, outcome: string) {
return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1'
? getCpmmProbability(contract.pool, contract.p)
: getDpmOutcomeProbability(contract.totalShares, outcome)
}
export function getOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet(
contract: Contract,
outcome: string,
bet: number
) {
return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1'
? getCpmmOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet(contract, outcome, bet)
: getDpmOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet(contract.totalShares, outcome, bet)
}
export function calculateShares(
contract: Contract,
bet: number,
betChoice: string
) {
return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1'
? calculateCpmmSharesAfterFee(contract, bet, betChoice)
: calculateDpmShares(contract.totalShares, bet, betChoice)
}
export function calculateSaleAmount(
contract: Contract,
bet: Bet,
unfilledBets: LimitBet[]
) {
return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' &&
(contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY' ||
contract.outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC')
? calculateCpmmSale(
contract,
Math.abs(bet.shares),
bet.outcome as 'YES' | 'NO',
unfilledBets
).saleValue
: calculateDpmSaleAmount(contract, bet)
}
export function calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1'
? bet.shares
: calculateDpmPayoutAfterCorrectBet(contract, bet)
}
export function getProbabilityAfterSale(
contract: Contract,
outcome: string,
shares: number,
unfilledBets: LimitBet[]
) {
return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1'
? getCpmmProbabilityAfterSale(
contract,
shares,
outcome as 'YES' | 'NO',
unfilledBets
)
: getDpmProbabilityAfterSale(contract.totalShares, outcome, shares)
}
export function calculatePayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet, outcome: string) {
return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' &&
(contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY' ||
contract.outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC')
? calculateFixedPayout(contract, bet, outcome)
: calculateDpmPayout(contract, bet, outcome)
}
export function resolvedPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
const outcome = contract.resolution
if (!outcome) throw new Error('Contract not resolved')
return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' &&
(contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY' ||
contract.outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC')
? calculateFixedPayout(contract, bet, outcome)
: calculateDpmPayout(contract, bet, outcome)
}
export function getContractBetMetrics(contract: Contract, yourBets: Bet[]) {
const { resolution } = contract
let currentInvested = 0
let totalInvested = 0
let payout = 0
let loan = 0
let saleValue = 0
let redeemed = 0
const totalShares: { [outcome: string]: number } = {}
for (const bet of yourBets) {
const { isSold, sale, amount, loanAmount, isRedemption, shares, outcome } =
bet
totalShares[outcome] = (totalShares[outcome] ?? 0) + shares
if (isSold) {
totalInvested += amount
} else if (sale) {
saleValue += sale.amount
} else {
if (isRedemption) {
redeemed += -1 * amount
} else if (amount > 0) {
totalInvested += amount
} else {
saleValue -= amount
}
currentInvested += amount
loan += loanAmount ?? 0
payout += resolution
? calculatePayout(contract, bet, resolution)
: calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'MKT')
}
}
const netPayout = payout - loan
const profit = payout + saleValue + redeemed - totalInvested
const profitPercent = (profit / totalInvested) * 100
const hasShares = Object.values(totalShares).some(
(shares) => !floatingEqual(shares, 0)
)
return {
invested: Math.max(0, currentInvested),
payout,
netPayout,
profit,
profitPercent,
totalShares,
hasShares,
}
}
export function getContractBetNullMetrics() {
return {
invested: 0,
payout: 0,
netPayout: 0,
profit: 0,
profitPercent: 0,
totalShares: {} as { [outcome: string]: number },
hasShares: false,
}
}
export function getTopAnswer(
contract: FreeResponseContract | MultipleChoiceContract
) {
const { answers } = contract
const top = maxBy(
answers?.map((answer) => ({
answer,
prob: getOutcomeProbability(contract, answer.id),
})),
({ prob }) => prob
)
return top?.answer
}