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<h1><strong>Reyk Börner</strong></h1>
PhD student<br>
University of Reading <br>
<a href="https://criticalearth.eu">CriticalEarth</a>
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<h1>Fairbrother Lecture 2024</h1>
<a href="" class="image fit"><img src="images/fairbrother/fairbrother_banner_16x9_blue_smaller.jpg" alt="" /></a>
<h2>Background info</h2>
<p>The 2024 Fairbrother Lecture on "Uncertain currents - Predicting tipping points in our ocean and climate" took place on 30 April at the Reading Biscuit Factory. Here you can find background information, supporting <a href="#refs">references</a> and a <a href="#recording">recording</a> of the lecture.</p>
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<section id="lecture">
<span class="image right"><img src="images/fairbrother/wide_audience1.jpeg" alt="" /></span>
<p>
For many of us the climate crisis mainly calls to mind rising global temperatures, but the crisis goes far beyond this – we are at risk of pushing our planet across climate ‘tipping points,’ critical thresholds where small changes can lead to abrupt and irreversible shifts in the Earth’s climate system.
</p>
<p>
One major element in climate tipping is a huge system of ocean currents, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which is responsible for Europe's relatively mild climate. Past climate patterns show that these currents can switch abruptly between today’s vigorous flow and a much weaker flow state. A future shutdown would have potentially devastating consequences in Europe and around the world.
</p>
<p>
Media stories often paint a catastrophic picture of possible climate futures, with runaway ice sheet collapse, abrupt sea level rise and rainforest dieback, possibly triggered as early as this decade. But how close to these tipping points are we really?
</p>
<span class="image left"><img src="images/fairbrother/SS_240430_6837 copy.jpeg" alt="" /></span>
<p>
Scientists work continuously to improve methods for predicting tipping points, meaning that our available knowledge shifts and develops. The complexity of the climate system also means significant uncertainties remain about tipping thresholds. Given this complexity and changing states of knowledge, how realistic is our yearning for fixed and definite answers and how should we best manage risk with limited knowledge?
</p>
<p>
In this lecture doctoral researcher in mathematics of climate, Reyk Börner, gives an inside view of what we know, don’t know, and perhaps can’t know about the future of our ocean currents and climate.
</p>
<h3>About the Fairbrother Lecture</h3>
<p>
The Fairbrother Lecture is a University public lecture organised by the Doctoral and Researcher College at University of Reading. It is named after Jack Fairbrother who in 1929 became one of the first students to be awarded a PhD from the University. The lecture is an annual event at which a Reading doctoral researcher presents their research to a wider audience. For further information and links to other lecture see <a href="https://reading.ac.uk/fairbrother-lecture">here</a>.
</p>
</section>
<section id="recording">
<h2>Watch the lecture</h2>
<div class="align-center">
<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/lJWHSMyvEAo?si=YfTDTwvMpVdXWimS" title="Fairbrother Lecture 2024 - Recording" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>
</div>
</section>
<section id="refs">
<h2>Supporting references</h2>
<p>
In the following, you'll find a selection of scientific publications and further links to the information sources and visuals used in the lecture, ordered chronologically by themes.
</p>
<h3>Time scales and irreversibility</h3>
<blockquote>
The two quotes are paraphrases from the <a href="https://www.dianetuft.com/coastal-requiem-film">short film</a> <b>'Coastal Requiem'</b> by <b>Diane Tuft</b> that was screened before the lecture.
</blockquote>
<h3>Climate tipping elements</h3>
<blockquote>
For a scientific overview of <b>climate tipping elements</b>, including the examples discussed in the lecture, take a look at the references below. The recent <a href="https://global-tipping-points.org/">Global Tipping Points Report</a> also offers information on different levels of detail.
The <b>world map</b> of climate tipping elements shown in the lecture is based on <i>Armstrong McKay et al. (2022)</i>.
</blockquote>
<p><div class="csl-bib-body" style="line-height: 2; margin-left: 2em; text-indent:-2em;">
<div class="csl-entry">Lenton, T. M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J. W., Lucht, W., Rahmstorf, S., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2008). Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system. <i>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences</i>, <i>105</i>(6), 1786–1793. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705414105">https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705414105</a></div>
<div class="csl-entry">Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., & Lenton, T. M. (2022). Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. <i>Science</i>, <i>377</i>(6611), eabn7950. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950">https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950</a></div>
<div class="csl-entry">Alley, R. B., Marotzke, J., Nordhaus, W. D., Overpeck, J. T., Peteet, D. M., Pielke, R. A., Pierrehumbert, R. T., Rhines, P. B., Stocker, T. F., Talley, L. D., & Wallace, J. M. (2003). Abrupt Climate Change. <i>Science</i>, <i>299</i>(5615), 2005–2010. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1081056">https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1081056</a></div>
<div class="csl-entry">Boers, N., Ghil, M., & Stocker, T. F. (2022). Theoretical and paleoclimatic evidence for abrupt transitions in the Earth system. <i>Environmental Research Letters</i>, <i>17</i>(9), 093006. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8944">https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8944</a></div>
<div class="csl-entry">Ashwin, P., Wieczorek, S., Vitolo, R., & Cox, P. (2012). Tipping points in open systems: Bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system. <i>Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences</i>, <i>370</i>(1962), 1166–1184. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2011.0306">https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2011.0306</a></div>
</div></p>
<blockquote>
In the summary for policymakers of the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/">IPCC Assessment Report 6</a>, climate tipping elements are mentioned in section C.3, among other places. <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-report-on-climate-science/">This article on CarbonBrief</a> offers a nice overview of what the report says about tipping points.
</blockquote>
<p><div class="csl-bib-body" style="line-height: 2; margin-left: 2em; text-indent:-2em;">
<div class="csl-entry">Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, Ö., Yu, R., & Zhou, B. (Eds.). (2021). <i>Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</i>. Cambridge University Press. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896">https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896</a></div>
</div></p>
<h3>Positive feedbacks in the climate system</h3>
<!--
<blockquote>The key positive feedbacks of proposed climate tipping elements are summarised in the <a href="https://global-tipping-points.org/">Global Tipping Points Report</a>.</blockquote>
-->
<h4>Polar ice sheets: Melt-elevation feedback</h4>
<p><div class="csl-bib-body" style="line-height: 2; margin-left: 2em; text-indent:-2em;">
<div class="csl-entry">Robinson, A., Calov, R., & Ganopolski, A. (2012). Multistability and critical thresholds of the Greenland ice sheet. <i>Nature Climate Change</i>, <i>2</i>(6), 429–432. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1449">https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1449</a></div>
</div></p>
<blockquote>
Other relevant positive feedbacks in ice sheets (not mentioned in the lecture) are the ice-albedo feedback and,
particularly in Antarctica, the <i>Marine Ice Sheet Instability</i> (MISI).
</blockquote>
<h4>Amazon rainforest: Forest-rain feedback</h4>
<p><div class="csl-bib-body" style="line-height: 2; margin-left: 2em; text-indent:-2em;">
<div class="csl-entry">Staal, A., Tuinenburg, O. A., Bosmans, J. H. C., Holmgren, M., van Nes, E. H., Scheffer, M., Zemp, D. C., & Dekker, S. C. (2018). Forest-rainfall cascades buffer against drought across the Amazon. <i>Nature Climate Change</i>, <i>8</i>(6), 539–543. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0177-y">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0177-y</a></div>
<div class="csl-entry">Zemp, D. C., Schleussner, C.-F., Barbosa, H. M. J., Hirota, M., Montade, V., Sampaio, G., Staal, A., Wang-Erlandsson, L., & Rammig, A. (2017). Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks. <i>Nature Communications</i>, <i>8</i>(1), 14681. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14681">https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14681</a></div>
<div class="csl-entry">Flores, B. M., Montoya, E., Sakschewski, B., Nascimento, N., Staal, A., Betts, R. A., Levis, C., Lapola, D. M., Esquível-Muelbert, A., Jakovac, C., Nobre, C. A., Oliveira, R. S., Borma, L. S., Nian, D., Boers, N., Hecht, S. B., ter Steege, H., Arieira, J., Lucas, I. L., … Hirota, M. (2024). Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system. <i>Nature</i>, <i>626</i>(7999), 555–564. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0</a></div>
</div></p>
<h3>Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)</h3>
<ul>
<li><b>Animation:</b> <a href="https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/3912">'Global Sea Surface Currents and Temperature'</a>, by Greg Shira, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio</li>
<li><b>Animation:</b> <a href="https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/3658">'The Thermohaline Circulation - The Great Ocean Conveyor Belt'</a>, by Greg Shira, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio. The Blue Marble Next Generation data is courtesy of Reto Stockli (NASA/GSFC) and NASA's Earth Observatory.</li>
<li>Movie reference: <b>'The Day After Tomorrow'</b>, dir. Roland Emmerich, 20th Century Fox (2004)</li>
</ul>
<blockquote>
Here are some scientific papers discussing the multistability of the AMOC.
</blockquote>
<p><div class="csl-bib-body" style="line-height: 2; margin-left: 2em; text-indent:-2em;">
<div class="csl-entry">Weijer, W., Cheng, W., Drijfhout, S. S., Fedorov, A. V., Hu, A., Jackson, L. C., Liu, W., McDonagh, E. L., Mecking, J. V., & Zhang, J. (2019). Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A Review and Synthesis. <i>Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans</i>, <i>124</i>(8), 5336–5375. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015083">https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015083</a></div>
<div class="csl-entry">Kuhlbrodt, T., Griesel, A., Montoya, M., Levermann, A., Hofmann, M., & Rahmstorf, S. (2007). On the driving processes of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. <i>Reviews of Geophysics</i>, <i>45</i>(2). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2004RG000166">https://doi.org/10.1029/2004RG000166</a></div>
<div class="csl-entry">Marotzke, J., & Willebrand, J. (1991). Multiple Equilibria of the Global Thermohaline Circulation. <i>Journal of Physical Oceanography</i>, <i>21</i>(9), 1372–1385. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1991)021<1372:MEOTGT>2.0.CO;2">https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1991)021<1372:MEOTGT>2.0.CO;2</a></div>
<div class="csl-entry">Lynch-Stieglitz, J. (2017). The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Abrupt Climate Change. <i>Annual Review of Marine Science</i>, <i>9</i>(Volume 9, 2017), 83–104. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-010816-060415">https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-010816-060415</a></div>
<div class="csl-entry">Rahmstorf, S., Crucifix, M., Ganopolski, A., Goosse, H., Kamenkovich, I., Knutti, R., Lohmann, G., Marsh, R., Mysak, L. A., Wang, Z., & Weaver, A. J. (2005). Thermohaline circulation hysteresis: A model intercomparison. <i>Geophysical Research Letters</i>, <i>32</i>(23). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023655">https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023655</a></div>
</div></p>
<h4>Stommel model: Atlantic spherical cow</h4>
<p><div class="csl-bib-body" style="line-height: 2; margin-left: 2em; text-indent:-2em;">
<div class="csl-entry">Stommel, H. (1961). Thermohaline Convection with Two Stable Regimes of Flow. <i>Tellus</i>, <i>13</i>(2), 224–230. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1961.tb00079.x">https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1961.tb00079.x</a></div>
</div></p>
<h3>Past climate: ice core records</h3>
<blockquote>
The <a href="https://www.iceandclimate.nbi.ku.dk/data/">ice core data</a> are publicly available from the Centre for Ice and Climate at the Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen.
</blockquote>
<p><div class="csl-bib-body" style="line-height: 2; margin-left: 2em; text-indent:-2em;">
<div class="csl-entry">Dansgaard, W., Johnsen, S. J., Clausen, H. B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Gundestrup, N. S., Hammer, C. U., Hvidberg, C. S., Steffensen, J. P., Sveinbjörnsdottir, A. E., Jouzel, J., & Bond, G. (1993). Evidence for general instability of past climate from a 250-kyr ice-core record. <i>Nature</i>, <i>364</i>(6434), 218–220. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/364218a0">https://doi.org/10.1038/364218a0</a></div>
<div class="csl-entry">Henry, L. G., McManus, J. F., Curry, W. B., Roberts, N. L., Piotrowski, A. M., & Keigwin, L. D. (2016). North Atlantic ocean circulation and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation. <i>Science</i>, <i>353</i>(6298), 470–474. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf5529">https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf5529</a></div>
</div></p>
<blockquote>
To construct the Arctic temperature timeseries over the past 100 thousand years shown in the lecture, I used datasets described in the following papers:
</blockquote>
<p><div class="csl-bib-body" style="line-height: 2; margin-left: 2em; text-indent:-2em;">
<div class="csl-entry">Kindler, P., Guillevic, M., Baumgartner, M., Schwander, J., Landais, A., & Leuenberger, M. (2014). Temperature reconstruction from 10 to 120 kyr b2k from the NGRIP ice core. <i>Climate of the Past</i>, <i>10</i>(2), 887–902. <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-887-2014">https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-887-2014</a></div>
<div class="csl-entry">Kaufman, D., McKay, N., Routson, C., Erb, M., Dätwyler, C., Sommer, P. S., Heiri, O., & Davis, B. (2020). Holocene global mean surface temperature, a multi-method reconstruction approach. <i>Scientific Data</i>, <i>7</i>(1), 201. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0530-7">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0530-7</a></div>
<div class="csl-entry">Rantanen, M., Karpechko, A. Y., Lipponen, A., Nordling, K., Hyvärinen, O., Ruosteenoja, K., Vihma, T., & Laaksonen, A. (2022). The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979. <i>Communications Earth & Environment</i>, <i>3</i>(1), 1–10. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3">https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3</a></div>
</div></p>
<h3>Future climate: Earth system models</h3>
<ul>
<li><b>Video:</b> Comparison of cloud patterns <a href="https://youtu.be/8w3o6_cn-O8?si=MWnoWdIJEaf-lHGS">observed with satellites</a> vs. <a href="https://youtu.be/UmiB4Ynd9AI?si=1XQyG8Czf7kz9oMW">simulated by a climate model</a>.</li>
</ul>
<h4>Projected AMOC strength until 2100</h4>
<blockquote>
The figure source on the slide entitled "Projected AMOC strength until 2100" was falsely cited as originating from the IPCC Assessment Report 6. Instead, the figure is adapted from <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-4-sea-level-rise-and-implications-for-low-lying-islands-coasts-and-communities/4-4-responding-to-sea-level-rise/4-4-1introduction/ipcc-srocc-ch_6_8/">Fig. 6.8</a> of the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/">Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (2019).</a>
</blockquote>
<p><div class="csl-bib-body" style="line-height: 2; margin-left: 2em; text-indent:-2em;">
<div class="csl-entry">IPCC, 2019: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 755 pp. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964">https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964</a></div>
</div></p>
<h4>AMOC impacts</h4>
<blockquote>
Papers cited in the lecture:
</blockquote>
<p><div class="csl-bib-body" style="line-height: 2; margin-left: 2em; text-indent:-2em;">
<div class="csl-entry">Liu, W., Xie, S.-P., Liu, Z., & Zhu, J. (2017). Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate. <i>Science Advances</i>, <i>3</i>(1), e1601666. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601666">https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601666</a></div>
<div class="csl-entry">Ritchie, P. D. L., Smith, G. S., Davis, K. J., Fezzi, C., Halleck-Vega, S., Harper, A. B., Boulton, C. A., Binner, A. R., Day, B. H., Gallego-Sala, A. V., Mecking, J. V., Sitch, S. A., Lenton, T. M., & Bateman, I. J. (2020). Shifts in national land use and food production in Great Britain after a climate tipping point. <i>Nature Food</i>, <i>1</i>(1), 76–83. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-019-0011-3">https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-019-0011-3</a></div>
</div></p>
<blockquote>
Further articles on impacts of a potential future AMOC decline:
</blockquote>
<p><div class="csl-bib-body" style="line-height: 2; margin-left: 2em; text-indent:-2em;">
<div class="csl-entry">Liu, W., Fedorov, A. V., Xie, S.-P., & Hu, S. (2020). Climate impacts of a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a warming climate. <i>Science Advances</i>, <i>6</i>(26), eaaz4876. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz4876">https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz4876</a></div>
<div class="csl-entry">Van Westen, R. M., Kliphuis, M., & Dijkstra, H. A. (2024). Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course. <i>Science Advances</i>, <i>10</i>(6), eadk1189. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189">https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189</a></div>
<div class="csl-entry">Bellomo, K., Meccia, V. L., D’Agostino, R., Fabiano, F., Larson, S. M., von Hardenberg, J., & Corti, S. (2023). Impacts of a weakened AMOC on precipitation over the Euro-Atlantic region in the EC-Earth3 climate model. Climate Dynamics, 61(7), 3397–3416. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06754-2">https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06754-2</a></div>
<div class="csl-entry">Bellomo, K., Angeloni, M., Corti, S., & von Hardenberg, J. (2021). Future climate change shaped by inter-model differences in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation response. <i>Nature Communications</i>, <i>12</i>(1), Article 1. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24015-w">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24015-w</a></div>
<div class="csl-entry">Weijer, W., Cheng, W., Drijfhout, S. S., Fedorov, A. V., Hu, A., Jackson, L. C., Liu, W., McDonagh, E. L., Mecking, J. V., & Zhang, J. (2019). Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A Review and Synthesis. <i>Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans</i>, <i>124</i>(8), 5336–5375. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015083">https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015083</a></div>
</div></p>
<h3>Predicting AMOC tipping points</h3>
<blockquote>
The journal article about early-warning signs of an AMOC collapse and its media echo discussed in the lecture is by Ditlevsen & Ditlevsen (2023):
</blockquote>
<p><div class="csl-bib-body" style="line-height: 2; margin-left: 2em; text-indent:-2em;">
<div class="csl-entry">Ditlevsen, P., & Ditlevsen, S. (2023). Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. <i>Nature Communications</i>, <i>14</i>(1), Article 1. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39810-w">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39810-w</a></div>
</div></p>
<blockquote>
Below are additional recent studies that look for early-warning signs of an AMOC tipping point.
</blockquote>
<p><div class="csl-bib-body" style="line-height: 2; margin-left: 2em; text-indent:-2em;">
<div class="csl-entry">Boers, N. (2021). Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. <i>Nature Climate Change</i>, <i>11</i>(8), 680–688. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01097-4">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01097-4</a></div>
<div class="csl-entry">Van Westen, R. M., Kliphuis, M., & Dijkstra, H. A. (2024). Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course. <i>Science Advances</i>, <i>10</i>(6), eadk1189. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189">https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189</a></div>
<div class="csl-entry">Michel, S. L. L., Swingedouw, D., Ortega, P., Gastineau, G., Mignot, J., McCarthy, G., & Khodri, M. (2022). Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction. <i>Nature Communications</i>, <i>13</i>(1), Article 1. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3</a></div>
</div></p>
<h3>Uncertainty and limitations</h3>
<blockquote>
These papers highlight some of the limitations and complexities of the climate system that make predictions of the future of the AMOC challenging and uncertain.
</blockquote>
<p><div class="csl-bib-body" style="line-height: 2; margin-left: 2em; text-indent:-2em;">
<div class="csl-entry">Mehling, O., Börner, R., & Lucarini, V. (2024). Limits to predictability of the asymptotic state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a conceptual climate model. <i>Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena</i>, <i>459</i>, 134043. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2023.134043">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2023.134043</a></div>
<div class="csl-entry">Lohmann, J., Dijkstra, H. A., Jochum, M., Lucarini, V., & Ditlevsen, P. D. (2024). Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation. <i>Science Advances</i>, <i>10</i>(12), eadi4253. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adi4253">https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adi4253</a></div>
<div class="csl-entry">Ben-Yami, M., Morr, A., Bathiany, S., & Boers, N. (2023). Uncertainties too large to predict tipping times of major Earth system components. <i>arXiv Preprint arXiv:2309.08521</i>.</div>
<div class="csl-entry">Ditlevsen, P. D., & Johnsen, S. J. (2010). Tipping points: Early warning and wishful thinking. <i>Geophysical Research Letters</i>, <i>37</i>(19).</div>
<div class="csl-entry">Romanou, A., Rind, D., Jonas, J., Miller, R., Kelley, M., Russell, G., Orbe, C., Nazarenko, L., Latto, R., & Schmidt, G. A. (2023). Stochastic Bifurcation of the North Atlantic Circulation under a Midrange Future Climate Scenario with the NASA-GISS ModelE. <i>Journal of Climate</i>, <i>36</i>(18), 6141–6161. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0536.1">https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0536.1</a></div>
<div class="csl-entry">Knutti, R., & Stocker, T. F. (2002). Limited Predictability of the Future Thermohaline Circulation Close to an Instability Threshold. Journal of Climate, 15(2), 179–186. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0179:LPOTFT>2.0.CO;2">https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0179:LPOTFT>2.0.CO;2</a></div>
</div></p>
<h3>Outlook</h3>
<blockquote>
The figure on the slide "No tipping ahead - all linear?" is <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/summary-for-policymakers/figure-spm-10"></a>Fig. SPM.10 in the Summary for Policymakers of the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/">IPCC Assessment Report 6</a> (2021).
</blockquote>
<blockquote>
The metaphor of a house fire to illustrate risk management under uncertainty was inspired by a talk by Richard Wood (UK Met Office).
</blockquote>
<p>Thank you for your interest in the lecture! To learn more about my own research, visit my <a href="index.html">personal website</a>.</p>
<!--
<h3>Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)</h3>
<ul>
<li>Background reading:</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b>Animation:</b> <a href="https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/3912">'Global Sea Surface Currents and Temperature'</a>, by Greg Shira, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio</li>
<li>Movie reference: <b>'The Day After Tomorrow'</b>, dir. Roland Emmerich, 20th Century Fox (2004)</li>
</ul>
<h4>Salt-advection feedback</h4>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/3884#media_group_350491">Thermohaline Circulation using Improved Flow Field</a></li>
</ul>
<h4>Stommel box model</h4>
<h3>Past climate: Ice core records</h3>
<h3>Future climate: Earth system models</h3>
<h4>Projected AMOC strength until 2100</h4>
<h4>AMOC imapacts</h4>
<h3>Predicting tipping points</h3>
<h3>Uncertainty and limitations</h3>
<header>
<h2>References</h2>
</header>
<p>
<h3>... cited in the lecture</h3>
<div class="csl-bib-body" style="line-height: 2; margin-left: 2em; text-indent:-2em;">
<div class="csl-entry">Ditlevsen, P., & Ditlevsen, S. (2023). Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. <i>Nature Communications</i>, <i>14</i>(1), Article 1. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39810-w">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39810-w</a></div>
<span class="Z3988" title="url_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fzotero.org%3A2&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1038%2Fs41467-023-39810-w&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Warning%20of%20a%20forthcoming%20collapse%20of%20the%20Atlantic%20meridional%20overturning%20circulation&rft.jtitle=Nature%20Communications&rft.stitle=Nat%20Commun&rft.volume=14&rft.issue=1&rft.aufirst=Peter&rft.aulast=Ditlevsen&rft.au=Peter%20Ditlevsen&rft.au=Susanne%20Ditlevsen&rft.date=2023-07-25&rft.pages=4254&rft.issn=2041-1723&rft.language=en"></span>
<div class="csl-entry">Liu, W., Xie, S.-P., Liu, Z., & Zhu, J. (2017). Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate. <i>Science Advances</i>, <i>3</i>(1), e1601666. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601666">https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601666</a></div>
<span class="Z3988" title="url_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fzotero.org%3A2&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1126%2Fsciadv.1601666&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Overlooked%20possibility%20of%20a%20collapsed%20Atlantic%20Meridional%20Overturning%20Circulation%20in%20warming%20climate&rft.jtitle=Science%20Advances&rft.volume=3&rft.issue=1&rft.aufirst=Wei&rft.aulast=Liu&rft.au=Wei%20Liu&rft.au=Shang-Ping%20Xie&rft.au=Zhengyu%20Liu&rft.au=Jiang%20Zhu&rft.date=2017-01-04&rft.pages=e1601666"></span>
<div class="csl-entry">Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, Ö., Yu, R., & Zhou, B. (Eds.). (2021). <i>Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</i>. Cambridge University Press. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896">https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896</a></div>
<span class="Z3988" title="url_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fzotero.org%3A2&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Climate%20Change%202021%3A%20The%20Physical%20Science%20Basis.%20Contribution%20of%20Working%20Group%20I%20to%20the%20Sixth%20Assessment%20Report%20of%20the%20Intergovernmental%20Panel%20on%20Climate%20Change&rft.place=Cambridge%2C%20United%20Kingdom%20and%20New%20York%2C%20NY%2C%20USA&rft.publisher=Cambridge%20University%20Press&rft.aufirst=Val%C3%A9rie&rft.aulast=Masson-Delmotte&rft.au=Val%C3%A9rie%20Masson-Delmotte&rft.au=Panmao%20Zhai&rft.au=Anna%20Pirani&rft.au=Sarah%20L.%20Connors&rft.au=Clotilde%20P%C3%A9an&rft.au=Sophie%20Berger&rft.au=Nada%20Caud&rft.au=Yang%20Chen&rft.au=Leah%20Goldfarb&rft.au=Melissa%20I.%20Gomis&rft.au=Mengtian%20Huang&rft.au=Katherine%20Leitzell&rft.au=Elisabeth%20Lonnoy&rft.au=J.%20B.%20Robin%20Matthews&rft.au=Thomas%20K.%20Maycock&rft.au=Tim%20Waterfield&rft.au=%C3%96zge%20Yelek%C3%A7i&rft.au=Rong%20Yu&rft.au=Botao%20Zhou&rft.date=2021"></span>
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