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Description:
Are you ready for the next big space weather event? In this video, we dive deep into the science behind solar flares, the inevitable threats they pose, and, most importantly, how you can prepare.
Solar flares are sudden releases of energy from the Sun that can disrupt technology and endanger astronauts. But how do they happen, and what makes them so dangerous? We'll explore everything from coronal loops and sunquakes to the 11-year solar cycle and the potential for superflares.
Here’s what you'll discover:
- What exactly are solar flares and how do they form?
- The potential impacts on our power grids, satellites, GPS systems, and communication networks.
- Recent examples of solar flare disruptions, including the SpaceX Starlink incident.
- Early warning systems and how scientists are working to predict these events using coronal loop monitoring and real-time analysis technologies.
- Crucial steps for individual, community, and governmental preparedness, including emergency supplies, infrastructure hardening, and public awareness campaigns.
- The truth about superflares and the long-term risks they pose to our civilization.
- The potential of sunquakes to help us predict the size and strength of future flares.
Whether you're a space enthusiast, a tech-dependent individual, or someone concerned about the stability of our infrastructure, this video is your guide to understanding and preparing for the inevitable threat of solar flares.
Don't wait until it's too late! Learn how to protect yourself, your community, and our technology from the next solar storm.
- Solar Flares: The Inevitable Threat & How to Prepare
- Solar Flare Early Warning Systems: Strategies and Technologies
- Superflares: Research Discrepancies, Statistical Biases, and Model Limitations
- Solar Flare Preparedness: A Comprehensive Guide
- Understanding Solar Flares: Dispelling Common Misconceptions
- Solar Flares vs. Coronal Mass Ejections: A Quick Comparison
- Solar Storms: Potential for Long-Term Internet Outages
- Parker Solar Probe: Unveiling Solar Corona Dynamics
- The Upsides of Solar Flares: Benefits and Scientific Opportunities
- Solar Flare Classification by GOES Soft X-ray Flux
- Delta Spots: Magnetically Complex Regions and Solar Flares
- Solar Flares: Impacts and Airline Precautions
- Bastille Day Solar Flare: Impact, Observations, and Effects
- Carrington Event Recurrence: Probabilities and Likelihood
- Solar Active Regions and Flare Origins
- Solar Flares: Ionospheric Impact on Radio Communication
- Solar Flare Effects: Ionospheric and Geomagnetic Disturbances
- Sunquakes: Exploring Solar Flares with Acoustic Transients
- Sunquakes: Acoustic Waves, Solar Flares, and Submerged Sources
- Waldmeier Effect: Solar Cycle Amplitude and Duration
- Coronal Loops: Predicting Solar Flares
- Earth's Magnetic Field: Protection from Solar Activity
- Geomagnetic Storms and Human Health: An Overview
- Geomagnetic Storms: Impact on Submarine Detection and Military Systems
- Solar Flare Impacts on Planetary Atmospheres
- Solar Flare and Space Weather Prediction Methods
- Gnevyshev–Ohl Rule: Solar Cycle Connections
- Superflares: Exploring the Sun's Potential for Extreme Solar Events
- Solar Flare Frequency and the Solar Cycle
- Mitigating Solar Flare Risks: A Trillion-Dollar Investment Strategy
- Preparing for Solar Flare Events: A Comprehensive Guide
- Solar Flare & Space Weather Stakeholders: An Overview
- Solar Flares: Characteristics, Impact, and Preparation
To enhance automated systems for reliable and timely alerts for dangerous solar flares, focus should be placed on coronal loop monitoring and the development of real-time analysis technologies [1, 2].
Key strategies and technologies:
• Coronal Loop Monitoring:
◦ Brightness Variations: Measuring brightness variations in coronal loops can signal oncoming flares [2].
◦ Automated Systems: Developing automated systems to look for brightness changes in coronal loops using real-time images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory could issue alerts [1].
• Advanced Prediction Metrics:
◦ Consistent Metrics: Aim to provide a more consistent metric correlating with the strength of a flare [1].
◦ Precise Warnings: Focus on delivering more precise warnings than current methods, signaling flares 2 to 6 hours ahead of time with 60 to 80 percent accuracy [2].
• Real-Time Analysis Technologies:
◦ Automated Detection: Implement systems capable of automatically detecting changes that indicate a solar event is developing [1].
◦ Data Assimilation: Use real-time radiation measurements from systems like NASA’s ARMAS to assimilate data into physics-based global radiation models like NAIRAS, providing weather of the radiation environment [3].
• Helioseismic Diagnostics:
◦ Acoustic Transients: Employ helioseismic diagnostics to discriminate the depths of sources and their horizontal locations [4].
◦ CAT Scans of the Sun: Develop techniques akin to CAT scans to view the solar interior in three dimensions, improving understanding of flare mechanics [5].
• Space Weather Models:
◦ Simulation: Utilize space weather models to simulate the space weather environment, employing mathematical equations to describe physical processes [6].
◦ Model Coordination: Improve and prepare models for use in space weather prediction and application through facilities like the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center [7].
• Integration with Observational Data:
◦ Continuous Observation: Continuously observe the Sun's photosphere for activity that could be precursors to solar flares and CMEs [8].
◦ Helioseismology: Monitor the surface and interior of the Sun using helioseismology to detect sunspot groups on the far side of the Sun [8].
By combining these strategies and technologies, automated systems can be significantly improved to provide more reliable and timely alerts for dangerous solar flares.
The conflicting research on the likelihood of superflares occurring on our Sun raises important questions about statistical biases and model limitations [1]. Future research could reconcile these differences by addressing these issues:
• Statistical Biases
◦ Stellar Population Bias: One potential reason for the discrepancy in the likelihood of superflares occurring on our Sun may be related to biased statistics of the stellar population of solar analogs [1].
◦ Limited Observational Data: Until recently, most solar flares have been studied as one-offs, since strong flares, even during times of maximum solar activity, may occur only a few times a year [2]. Increasing the database of systematically surveyed solar flares, even weaker ones, may allow for a better understanding of the mechanics of solar flares [2].
• Model Limitations
◦ Incomplete Understanding of Flare Mechanisms: Although there is a general agreement on the source of a flare's energy, the mechanisms involved are not well understood [3]. It is not clear how the magnetic energy is transformed into the kinetic energy of the particles, nor is it known how some particles can be accelerated to high energies [3]. These knowledge gaps introduce uncertainties into flare models.
◦ Challenges in Predicting Timing and Strength: Predictions of a future maximum's timing and strength are very difficult; predictions vary widely [4].
To reconcile these differences, future research could focus on:
• Improving Statistical Analysis:
◦ Collecting a more comprehensive dataset of solar flares, including weaker flares, could help reduce statistical biases [2].
◦ Correcting for biases in stellar populations when comparing the Sun to other stars [1].
• Enhancing Models:
◦ Developing more sophisticated models that better capture the underlying physics of flares, including the transformation of magnetic energy into particle kinetic energy [3].
◦ Refining models to accurately predict the timing and strength of solar cycles, which could provide insights into the likelihood of extreme events [4].
During periods of solar maximum, when solar flares are more frequent and intense, individuals, communities, and governments can take specific preparedness measures to mitigate potential impacts on critical infrastructure and daily life.
Individual Preparedness:
• Stay Informed: Monitor space weather forecasts and alerts from reliable sources such as the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center [1].
• Emergency Supplies: Have backup plans for potential disruptions to services like GPS, radio communications, and internet [2, 3].
• Power Outages: Keep a supply of non-perishable food, water, and alternative lighting and heating sources in case of prolonged power outages [4].
• Communication: Maintain alternative communication methods, such as battery-powered radios [5].
Community Preparedness:
• Local Emergency Plans: Develop community-level emergency response plans for dealing with prolonged power outages and disruptions to essential services [1].
• Resource Sharing: Establish community hubs with backup power and communication equipment [1].
• Vulnerable Populations: Identify and support vulnerable populations who may be more severely affected by disruptions [1].
Governmental Preparedness:
• Infrastructure Hardening:
◦ Power Grid Protection: Implement measures to protect electrical grids from geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), such as momentarily disconnecting transformers or preventing the inflow of GICs through the neutral-to-ground connection [1, 6].
◦ Equipment Testing: Adopt and enforce NERC rules for equipment testing for electric utilities and require upgrades to protect against geomagnetic storm effects [7].
◦ Transformer Stockpiles: Maintain stockpiles of replacement transformers to quickly restore power in case of damage [7].
• Satellite Protection:
◦ Operational Adjustments: Develop protocols for temporarily shutting down or reorienting satellites to minimize radiation damage during solar flares [8, 9].
◦ Redundant Systems: Ensure redundant satellite systems for critical services like communication and navigation [8, 9].
• Communication and Alert Systems:
◦ Early Warning Systems: Invest in and improve space weather forecasting and early warning systems to provide timely alerts to the public and critical infrastructure operators [10-12].
◦ Public Awareness Campaigns: Launch public awareness campaigns to educate citizens about the potential impacts of solar storms and preparedness measures [10].
• Aviation Safety:
◦ Route Adjustments: Develop protocols for rerouting flights away from polar regions during polar cap absorption events to maintain reliable HF radio communications [13].
◦ Communication Protocols: Establish communication protocols to manage potential disruptions to air control radio frequencies [2].
• International Coordination:
◦ Global Monitoring: Support international efforts to monitor space weather and share data [14].
◦ Collaborative Research: Encourage collaborative research to improve understanding and prediction of solar flares and their impacts [14].
• Economic Measures:
◦ Incentivize Innovation: Encourage commercial space weather services and products through economic innovation zones [15].
◦ Support Research: Expand research activities related to space weather by universities [15].
By implementing these preparedness measures, individuals, communities, and governments can significantly reduce the potential impacts of increased solar flare activity during solar maximum events [15].
Some common misconceptions regarding solar flares include their potential impact and predictability. Current methods of flare prediction are problematic, and there is no certain way to know if an active region on the Sun will produce a flare [1].
Here are some other misconceptions to consider:
• Solar flares reaching the Earth's surface: The extreme ultraviolet and X-ray radiation from solar flares is absorbed by the daylight side of Earth's upper atmosphere and does not reach the surface [2].
• All solar flares are equally dangerous: Solar flares are classified by the letters A, B, C, M, or X, according to their peak flux, with more powerful flares being less frequent [3, 4].
• Flares always occur with coronal mass ejections: Although flares are associated with CME events, they are distinct phenomena [5].
Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are both types of solar storms, but they differ in several ways [1, 2]:
• Nature of the event: Solar flares are intense, localized bursts of electromagnetic radiation in the Sun's atmosphere [3]. CMEs are massive ejections of plasma from the Sun's corona into the heliosphere [1, 4].
• Manifestation: Flares affect all layers of the solar atmosphere and emit electromagnetic radiation across the spectrum [5]. CMEs release large quantities of matter and magnetic field into the solar wind and interplanetary space [6].
• Speed: CMEs can reach speeds from 20 to 3,200 km/s [7].
• Association: Flares and CMEs often occur together, but this is not always the case [3, 8]. Solar flares can occur without CMEs, and CMEs can occur without solar flares [9].
• Impact on Earth: Both solar flares and CMEs can disrupt radio transmissions and damage satellites [10]. CMEs can cause geomagnetic storms [4].
• Composition: CMEs consist primarily of electrons and protons embedded within a magnetic field [6]. Flares produce radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum [11].
• Frequency: Flares of any given size are more frequent at solar maximum than at minimum [12]. The frequency of CMEs depends on the phase of the solar cycle, ranging from about 0.2 per day near the solar minimum to 3.5 per day near the solar maximum [13].
• Detection: Flares are detected by the peak flux of soft X-rays [14, 15]. CMEs are usually visible in white-light coronagraphs [4].
• Origin: Solar flares and CMEs originate from active regions, where intense magnetic fields penetrate the photosphere to link the corona to the solar interior [8, 16]. CMEs erupt from strongly twisted or sheared, large-scale magnetic field structures in the corona [17].
A solar flare could potentially cause a long-term, but likely not permanent, internet outage [1]. Here's what the sources indicate:
• Internet infrastructure vulnerability: A solar superstorm could cause large-scale global internet outages potentially lasting for months [1]. Damage to communications satellites from solar events can disrupt non-terrestrial telephone, television, radio, and internet links [1, 2].
• Cable damage: Intense solar storms have the potential to damage or destroy submarine communications cables [3].
• Geomagnetic storms: Geomagnetic storms can disrupt radio transmissions and damage satellites [2].
• Mitigation and alternatives: Mitigation measures, such as user-powered mesh networks and new protocols, along with peer-to-peer applications, could provide alternatives [1].
• Historical events: The Carrington Event in 1859 and other geomagnetic storms disrupted telegraph service, indicating the potential for communication disruptions [4-6].
• South Atlantic Anomaly: The vulnerability of satellites also depends on their position, with the South Atlantic Anomaly being a particularly risky area for satellites to pass through due to a weak geomagnetic field [7].
• Increased atmospheric drag: A mild solar and geomagnetic storm led to the premature reentry and destruction of SpaceX Starlink satellites due to increased atmospheric drag [8].
• Warnings and preparedness: Computer scientists have warned that the global internet is not prepared for a large solar storm [9].
The Parker Solar Probe's mission is to study the structure and dynamics of the solar corona to help understand the mechanisms that cause particles to be heated and accelerated as solar wind [1]. During its mission, the probe will orbit the Sun twenty-four times, passing further into the corona with each orbit [1].
While the sources do not directly state that the Parker Solar Probe helps in understanding and predicting solar flares, it does provide data and observations related to other solar phenomena, such as:
• Magnetic switchbacks: The probe observed switchbacks, or sudden reversals, in the magnetic field of the solar wind [2].
• Alfvén critical surface: In 2021, the Parker Solar Probe encountered specific magnetic and particle conditions at 18.8 solar radii, which indicated it penetrated the Alfvén surface [3].
This data contributes to a better understanding of the sun, including solar flares [1].
While solar flares are often associated with negative impacts, there can be some beneficial aspects:
• Shielding from galactic cosmic rays: A side effect of the magnetic field shift during solar activity, which can include flares, is that it can help shield Earth from galactic cosmic rays, which are high-energy subatomic particles that can damage spacecraft and harm orbiting astronauts [1].
• Aurora displays: Solar flares and coronal mass ejections can lead to increased auroral activity, providing spectacular displays of the Northern and Southern Lights [2, 3].
• Scientific study: Solar flares provide opportunities for scientists to study the Sun and its effects on the solar system [2]. The data gathered from these events can improve our understanding of space weather and help develop better prediction methods [4, 5].
• Advancements in technology: The need to monitor and predict solar flares has driven advancements in technology and instrumentation, such as the Solar Dynamics Observatory, which helps scientists observe and understand these events [5, 6].
• Possible climate effects: Some theories suggest there may be a correlation between solar activity, including flares, and terrestrial climate, although this is a complex and debated topic [7].
It is important to note that the benefits of solar flares are generally outweighed by their potential risks to technology, infrastructure, and human safety [3, 5, 8].
Scientists classify solar flares based on the peak flux of soft X-rays (SXR) with wavelengths from 0.1 to 0.8 nanometers (1 to 8 ångströms), as measured by GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) satellites in geosynchronous orbit [1, 2]. The classification system uses the letters A, B, C, M, or X to denote the flare’s strength [1].
Here's a breakdown of the classification system [1, 3]:
• A-class: Less than 10−7 W/m2
• B-class: 10−7 – 10−6 W/m2
• C-class: 10−6 – 10−5 W/m2
• M-class: 10−5 – 10−4 W/m2
• X-class: Greater than 10−4 W/m2
Within each class, a numerical suffix ranging from 1 to 9 indicates the flare's strength [3]. For example, an X2 flare is twice the strength of an X1 flare [3]. X-class flares with a peak flux exceeding 10−3 W/m2 may be noted with a numerical suffix equal to or greater than 10 [3].
This classification system was initially devised in 1970, including only the letters C, M, and X [4]. The A and B classes were added in the 1990s as instruments became more sensitive to weaker flares [4].
Delta spots are magnetically complex regions on the Sun, often associated with large solar flares [1]. Here's why they are important for prediction:
• Magnetic Complexity: Delta spots are characterized by sunspots having completely intermixed magnetic polarity [2]. They are referred to as magnetically complex regions based on the line-of-sight magnetic field [1].
• Flare Production: These regions frequently produce the largest flares [1].
• Sunspot Classification: Delta spots are a qualifier to sunspot classification, indicating the presence of opposite polarity umbrae within a single penumbra separated by at most 2° in heliographic distance [2].
• NOAA uses delta spot data: The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) uses sunspot classification based on the McIntosh system as a starting point for flare prediction [1].
Active regions possessing strong magnetic flux can inhibit convection, leading to a decrease in surface temperature, and the formation of sunspots [3]. Active regions are often the source of coronal mass ejections and solar flares [4, 5].
Solar flares can affect air travel in several ways, and airlines take precautions to mitigate these effects [1-5].
Here's how solar flares might affect air travel:
• Communication disruptions:
◦ Solar flares can cause radio blackouts, especially affecting HF radio communications [6-8].
◦ Transpolar airline routes, particularly above 82 degrees north latitude, rely on HF radio communications, and rerouting may be necessary if these communications are disrupted [5].
◦ The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) receives alerts of solar radio bursts to recognize communication problems [3].
• Navigation system interference:
◦ Solar flares can interfere with global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) such as GPS [9].
◦ The Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS), used for North American commercial aviation, can be disabled by space weather events, leading to outages ranging from minutes to days [10, 11].
• Radiation exposure:
◦ Solar flares can cause elevated radiation levels aboard aircraft flying at high altitudes, especially in polar regions [2, 4, 12, 13].
◦ Transpolar airline routes are particularly sensitive to space weather [2].
◦ When a space weather event causes radiation exposure to exceed safe levels, the aircraft's flight path is diverted [2].
• Satellite communication issues: Solar flares can cause disturbances in satellite communications, impacting aircraft [3].
Here are some precautions airlines take:
• Route adjustments: Airlines may redirect routes, especially polar routes, to maintain viable HF communications during polar cap absorption events [5].
• Monitoring: Flight crews and maintenance personnel are alerted to determine if solar activity will affect satellite communications, GPS navigation, and HF Communications [3].
• Alerts and warnings: Airlines receive geomagnetic storm alerts and warnings from sources such as the Space Weather Prediction Center [3, 14].
• Flight path adjustments: Flight paths and altitudes may be adjusted to lower the absorbed radiation dose during solar proton events [4].
The "Bastille Day" solar flare event occurred on July 14, 2000, when an X5-class solar flare erupted [1]. A coronal mass ejection (CME) was launched directly at the Earth [1]. A geomagnetic super storm occurred on July 15–17; the minimum of the Dst index was −301 nT [1].
Here's what made the Bastille Day event significant:
• Direct impact on Earth: The CME from the Bastille Day flare was directed straight toward Earth [1].
• Geomagnetic storm: The event resulted in a geomagnetic super storm on July 15–17 [1].
• Voyager observations: The Bastille Day event was observed by Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 [2]. Thus, it is the farthest out in the Solar System that a solar storm has been observed [2].
• No power failures: Despite the storm's strength, no power distribution failures were reported [1].
The chances of another Carrington Event occurring in our lifetime are difficult to predict precisely, but here's what the sources suggest:
• Rarity of events: Strong flares like those associated with the Carrington Event are rare but can occur even during times of maximum solar activity [1].
• Estimated recurrence: Ice core samples indicate events of similar intensity to the Carrington Event recur approximately once every 500 years [2].
• Probability estimation:
◦ One study estimated the chance of Earth being hit by a Carrington-class storm in the next decade to be between 0.46% and 1.88% [3].
◦ Another study suggests there is a 4% chance of a Carrington-like event occurring in the next 50 years [4].
• Superflares: Proxy data suggests the Sun may be capable of producing "superflares" that are as much as 1,000 times stronger than any flares in the historical record [5].
• July 2012 solar storm: In July 2012, a massive solar superstorm (solar flare, CME, solar EMP) occurred but missed Earth [6]. Analysis suggests this event had characteristics that may have made it a Carrington-class storm [7, 8].
It is important to note that predicting the timing and strength of solar events is very difficult, and predictions can vary widely [9].
Solar flares are more likely to originate in active regions on the Sun [1, 2]. These are temporary features in the Sun's atmosphere characterized by strong and complex magnetic fields [3]. These regions are often associated with sunspots and are a common source of violent eruptions such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar flares [3].
Key aspects of these active regions:
• Location: Active regions form where intense magnetic fields penetrate the photosphere to link the corona to the solar interior [4]. They can be present at different stages of the growth and decay of these regions [5].
• Magnetic Complexity: Active regions often exhibit complex magnetic configurations, such as quadrupolar fields [5]. Delta spots, which are a qualifier to sunspot classification, indicate the presence of opposite polarity umbrae within a single penumbra [6, 7]. Magnetically complex regions referred to as delta spots frequently produce the largest flares [8].
• Magnetic Field Strength: Active regions are characterized by strong magnetic fields [3]. The strong magnetic flux found in active regions can inhibit convection, leading to a decrease in surface temperature, and the formation of sunspots [7].
• Coronal Loops: Coronal loops, arch-like structures, rise from magnetically driven active regions on the Sun where solar flares also originate [9]. Measuring brightness variations in coronal loops could signal oncoming flares [10].
• Neutral Lines: Pre-eruption CME structures always lie above polarity inversion lines (PIL), or boundaries across which the sign of the vertical component of the magnetic field reverses [5].
The number and location of active regions on the solar disk at any given time depend on the solar cycle [3]. Newly observed active regions are assigned 4-digit region numbers by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) [11].
Solar flares significantly impact the ionosphere, leading to several consequences for radio communication [1, 2]. Here's a breakdown of how solar flares affect the ionosphere and the resulting impact on radio communication:
• Ionization Increase:
◦ Solar flares emit extreme ultraviolet (XUV) and X-ray radiation, which is absorbed by the Earth's upper atmosphere, particularly the ionosphere [1, 3].
◦ This absorption increases the ionization of the ionosphere, especially on the daylight side of Earth [2, 3].
◦ The greatest increases in ionization occur in the lower ionosphere, specifically in the D and E layers [4].
• Radio Communication Interference:
◦ The increased ionization in the D layer can interfere with short-wave radio communications that rely on the ionosphere for skywave propagation [2, 3].
◦ Skywave propagation, where radio waves are reflected or refracted off the ionized ionosphere, is degraded or completely absorbed due to more frequent collisions with free electrons when ionization is higher than normal [2].
◦ This can result in radio blackouts, where radio signals are weakened or completely lost [5].
• Frequency-Specific Effects:
◦ HF band (3-30 MHz): Solar flares can create irregularities in the ionosphere that scatter HF signals, preventing effective communication [6].
◦ VHF band (30-300 MHz): Radio signals can be distorted beyond recognition by a disturbed ionosphere [7].
◦ UHF band (300 MHz to 3 GHz): Radio signals can transit a disturbed ionosphere, but receivers may struggle to maintain a lock on the carrier frequency [7].
• Geomagnetic Field Variation:
◦ Large solar flares can strengthen electric currents in the dayside E layer of the ionosphere [8].
◦ This leads to increased electrical conductivity and geomagnetic field variation, known as a solar flare effect (sfe) or magnetic crochet [8].
• Classification of Radio Blackouts:
◦ The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) classifies radio blackouts based on the peak soft X-ray intensity of the associated flare [5, 8].
◦ The classification ranges from minor (R1) to extreme (R5), with corresponding descriptions of the severity of the radio blackout [8].
In summary, solar flares enhance the ionization of the ionosphere, particularly in the D layer, which leads to the absorption and scattering of radio waves. This interference can disrupt or completely black out radio communications, especially in the HF band, and affects various navigation systems and satellite communications [2, 5, 7].
A solar flare effect (sfe), also known historically as a magnetic crochet, is an increase in the induced geomagnetic field variation caused by strengthened electric currents in Earth's dayside ionosphere during large solar flares [1].
Here's how it manifests on Earth:
• Increased Ionospheric Currents: During solar flares, there is increased ionization of the E and D layers of the ionosphere, which strengthens electric currents flowing through the dayside E layer [1].
• Geomagnetic Field Disturbance: This increase in electrical conductivity leads to a subsequent increase in the induced geomagnetic field variation, which is observed as a hook-like disturbance in magnetic field strength [1].
• Observation by Magnetometers: Ground-based magnetometers detect these disturbances as variations on the order of a few nanoteslas [1].
• Radio Noise Bursts: Radio noise bursts, reported by the Radio Solar Telescope Network to the U.S. Air Force and to NOAA, are associated with solar flare plasma interacting with the ambient solar atmosphere [2].
• Short-wave Radio Communication Interference: Enhanced XUV irradiance during solar flares can result in increased ionization, dissociation, and heating in the ionospheres of Earth [3]. These changes to the upper atmosphere, collectively referred to as sudden ionospheric disturbances, can interfere with short-wave radio communication [3, 4].
• GPS Interference: Solar flare effects can also interfere with global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) such as GPS [3].
• Comparison to Geomagnetic Storms: The disturbances caused by solar flare effects are relatively minor compared to those induced during geomagnetic storms [1].
• Historical Context: The magnetic crochet associated with the Carrington Event in 1859 was an early observation of a solar flare effect, though it predated the understanding of X-rays and the ionosphere [5].
Scientists monitor space weather at ground level by observing changes in the Earth's magnetic field, the surface of the Sun, and radio noise created in the Sun's atmosphere [6].
Scientists use acoustic transients, also known as sunquakes, to study solar flares by analyzing the acoustic waves that flares generate within the Sun [1, 2]. These waves can reveal information about the flare's source and characteristics [1].
Key methods and findings include:
• Helioseismic Holography: This technique analyzes acoustic waves triggered by flares to probe their sources [3]. It enables scientists to discriminate the depths and horizontal locations of these sources [4].
• Mapping the Source: By studying the acoustic waves, scientists can map the source of the explosion in detail [2].
• Depth of Origin: Research indicates that some acoustic energy released from a flare emanates from approximately 1,000 kilometers beneath the solar surface (photosphere), far below the location of the solar flare [1].
• Wave Refraction: Acoustic explosions from flares radiate acoustic waves in all directions, primarily downwards [5]. As these waves move through regions of increasing temperature, their paths bend due to refraction, eventually returning to the surface, where they create observable ripples [5, 6].
• CAT Scan Analogy: Solar physicists use acoustic transients to view the solar interior in three dimensions, similar to how a CAT scan is used in medicine [7].
• Submerged Sources: The discovery of submerged acoustic sources raises questions about whether acoustic transients can occur spontaneously, even without a surface disturbance or flare [8]. Detecting such events could potentially serve as a forecasting tool if the transient originates from magnetic flux that has yet to breach the surface [8].
• Open Questions: Scientists are exploring which flares produce sunquakes, whether sunquakes can occur without a flare, and why sunquakes primarily emanate from the edges of sunspots [8, 9].
NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory satellite provides data to pinpoint the source of explosions that generate seismic waves [10]. These waves produce ripples on the Sun's surface that can be observed from Earth [6].
The possibility of sunquakes occurring without a solar flare is an open question [1].
Key points from the sources regarding sunquakes and solar flares:
• Sunquakes are acoustic waves generated by violent explosions on the sun [2]. These waves can propagate deep into the sun's interior and create ripples on the surface [2, 3].
• Flares as Triggers: Solar flares are often considered precursors or triggers for acoustic transients that lead to sunquakes [4]. Some scientists propose that flares shake something beneath the surface, which releases a compact unit of submerged energy as acoustic sound [5].
• Submerged Sources: The discovery of submerged acoustic sources raises the question of whether acoustic transients can be released spontaneously, without a surface disturbance or flare [6].
• Forecasting Tool: If sunquakes can be generated spontaneously, it could potentially lead to a forecasting tool if the transient originates from magnetic flux that has yet to break the sun's surface [7]. This could allow anticipation of the emergence of an active region and prediction of its potential to produce flares [7].
• Open Questions: It is still unknown which flares do or do not produce sunquakes [1].
The Waldmeier effect describes the observation that the maximum amplitudes of solar cycles are inversely proportional to the time between their solar minima and maxima [1]. This means that solar cycles with larger maximum amplitudes tend to reach their maxima more quickly than cycles with smaller amplitudes [1]. Max Waldmeier is credited with first describing this effect [1].
Coronal loops play a significant role in predicting solar flares, acting as potential warning signs of impending solar activity [1, 2].
Here's how coronal loops are used in solar flare prediction:
• Flickering as a Warning Sign: Researchers have identified flickering loops in the solar atmosphere (corona) that seem to signal when the Sun is about to unleash a large flare [1]. These loops, located along the edge of the Sun, are arch-like structures that rise from magnetically driven active regions where solar flares originate [2].
• Brightness Variation Analysis: Scientists analyze how the brightness of coronal loops in extreme ultraviolet light varies in the hours before a flare, comparing them to loops above non-flaring regions [2]. Loops above flaring regions exhibit much more variation than those above non-flaring regions [2].
• Chaotic Behavior: Instead of searching for specific trends, scientists look for periods of "chaotic" behavior in the coronal loop emission [3]. This approach provides a more consistent metric and may correlate with the strength of an upcoming flare [3].
• Automated Systems and Alerts: The hope is that findings about coronal loops can eventually be used to help keep astronauts, spacecraft, electrical grids, and other assets safe from the harmful radiation that accompanies solar flares [4]. An automated system could look for brightness changes in coronal loops in real-time images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory and issue alerts [4].
• Timing: Measuring brightness variations in coronal loops could signal oncoming flares 2 to 6 hours ahead of time with 60 to 80 percent accuracy [5]. The flickering in extreme ultraviolet light above active regions may occur erratically for a few hours before a solar flare [6]. The flickering may reach a peak earlier for stronger flares [6].
By monitoring the brightness variations and chaotic behavior within coronal loops, scientists aim to improve the accuracy and timing of solar flare predictions, which is crucial for protecting technology and astronauts from hazardous space weather [1, 4].
The Earth's magnetic field plays a crucial role in protecting the planet from the harmful effects of solar flares and other forms of solar activity [1].
Here's how the magnetic field provides this protection:
• Deflection of Charged Particles: The Earth's magnetosphere deflects most of the charged particles emitted during solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) [2]. This deflection is due to the Lorentz force, which causes the particles to travel around the planet rather than bombarding the atmosphere or surface [3].
• Formation of the Magnetosphere: The interaction between the solar wind and the Earth's magnetic field creates the magnetosphere, a region surrounding the Earth that acts as a protective shield [1, 3, 4]. The magnetosphere is shaped like a hemisphere on the side facing the Sun and is drawn out into a long wake on the opposite side [3].
• Limited Particle Penetration: While most particles are deflected, some manage to penetrate the magnetosphere through partial reconnection of magnetic field lines [3]. However, the bulk of the harmful radiation is kept at bay.
• Bow Shock and Magnetosheath: The bow shock forms the outermost layer of the magnetosphere, where the speed of the solar wind decreases as it approaches the magnetopause [5]. The magnetosheath, the region between the bow shock and the magnetopause, acts as a cushion, transmitting pressure from the solar wind and providing a barrier [5].
• Trapping of Particles: Some charged particles that enter the magnetosphere become trapped in the Van Allen radiation belts [2, 6].
• Atmospheric Protection: The Earth's atmosphere and magnetosphere provide adequate protection at ground level [7]. However, astronauts outside this protective shield are still vulnerable to radiation poisoning [7, 8].
• Geomagnetic Storms: When a CME impacts the Earth's magnetosphere, it can cause geomagnetic storms [4, 9, 10]. During these storms, the Earth's magnetic field is temporarily deformed, and energy is injected into the magnetosphere [10]. While geomagnetic storms can disrupt technology, the magnetic field still mitigates much of the direct impact from solar events [11].
• Shielding from Galactic Cosmic Rays: One side effect of the Sun's magnetic field shift is that it can help shield Earth from galactic cosmic rays, which are high-energy subatomic particles that can damage spacecraft and harm orbiting astronauts [12]. As the Sun's magnetic field shifts, the "current sheet" becomes very wavy, providing a better barrier against cosmic rays [13].
• Planetary Comparison: Planets with weak or non-existent magnetospheres are subject to atmospheric stripping by the solar wind [2]. For example, Mars is believed to have lost a significant portion of its atmosphere due to the solar wind [14].
In summary, the Earth's magnetic field deflects the majority of charged particles from solar flares and CMEs, mitigating their direct impact on the atmosphere and surface. It also plays a role in deflecting galactic cosmic rays. Although some particles do penetrate the magnetosphere, the magnetic field significantly reduces the overall risk posed by solar activity [1].
Yes, there are studies investigating the potential effects of geomagnetic storms and solar flares on human health, beyond the direct radiation exposure experienced by astronauts [1, 2]. It is worth noting that this is a large but controversial body of scientific literature [1].
Reported connections between geomagnetic activity and human health include:
• Cryptochrome, Melatonin, and Circadian Rhythm: Some theories suggest that geomagnetic storms may affect human health through the involvement of cryptochrome, melatonin, the pineal gland, and the circadian rhythm [1].
• Cardiovascular Parameters: Some studies have investigated the effect of geomagnetic activity on cardiovascular parameters [3].
• UVB Light and Ozone: Fluctuations in ultraviolet UVB light reaching the Earth's surface, influenced by solar cycles and the ozone layer, could indirectly affect human health [4]. During solar minima, reduced ultraviolet light from the Sun can decrease ozone concentration, potentially allowing increased UVB to reach the Earth's surface [4].
• Whale Beaching: Speculation exists that solar storms may induce whales to beach themselves, and that migrating animals using magnetoreception for navigation, like birds and honey bees, may also be affected [5].
Yes, a solar flare could trigger a geomagnetic storm so extreme that it would mask signals used in submarine detection systems [1].
Here's how such a scenario could unfold, according to the sources:
• Geomagnetic Storms and Magnetic Signatures: Submarine detection systems sometimes rely on detecting the magnetic signatures of submarines [1].
• Masking and Distortion of Signals: Geomagnetic storms can mask and distort these signals [1]. The space weather-related magnetic field changes are similar in magnitude to those of the subsurface crustal magnetic field in the survey area [2]. Accurate geomagnetic storm warnings, including an assessment of storm magnitude and duration, allow for an economic use of survey equipment [2].
• Extreme Geomagnetic Storms: The most significant known solar storm occurred in September 1859, known as the "Carrington Event" [3]. The Carrington Event and other less severe storms, such as the aurora of November 17, 1882, and the May 1921 geomagnetic storm, have disrupted telegraph service and initiated fires [4].
• Modern Threats: A geomagnetic storm on the scale of the solar storm of 1859 today would cause billions or even trillions of dollars of damage to satellites, power grids, and radio communications [5].
• Induced Currents: Geomagnetic storms induce currents in long transmission lines, potentially damaging electrical transmission equipment [5, 6].
• Impact on Military Systems: Military detection or early warning systems operating in the high-frequency range can be affected by solar activity [1]. Over-the-horizon radar, which bounces signals off the ionosphere, can be severely hampered by radio clutter during geomagnetic storms [1].
• Ionospheric Irregularities: Space weather events can create irregularities in the ionosphere that scatter HF signals instead of reflecting them, which prevents HF communications [7].
Solar flares can significantly affect the atmospheres and magnetospheres of other planets in the solar system [1]. Research into these effects has primarily focused on Mars and, to a lesser extent, Venus [1, 2].
Key impacts of solar flares on other planets:
• Mars:
◦ Models suggest that the most energetic solar flares could deliver harmful or lethal doses of radiation to higher organisms on the surface of Mars [3]. Flares of sufficient energy to be lethal, though not yet observed on the Sun, have been seen on other Sun-like stars [3].
◦ Solar flares may have provided acute doses of radiation to the surface of Mars, impacting its habitability [3-5].
◦ Enhanced XUV irradiance during solar flares can lead to increased ionization, dissociation, and heating in the Martian ionosphere [6, 7]. The greatest increases in ionization occur in the lower ionosphere [7].
◦ Studies using Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) data have analyzed the response of the Martian ionosphere to solar flares [5, 8].
• Venus:
◦ Like Mars, Venus's atmosphere can be affected by the excess ionizing radiation from solar flares [1, 6].
◦ It is hypothesized that Venus and Mars may have lost their primordial water to photodissociation and the solar wind [9].
A strong magnetosphere, if present, would greatly slow down this process [9].
• Space probes have discovered that Venus has a comet-like tail that extends to Earth's orbit [10].
• Mercury:
◦ Research on the effects of solar flares on Mercury has been limited to modeling the response of ions in the planet's magnetosphere [1, 11].
• Jupiter and Saturn:
◦ The impact of solar flares on Jupiter and Saturn has been studied primarily in the context of X-ray radiation backscattering off the planets' upper atmospheres [1, 11].
• General Effects:
◦ Enhanced XUV irradiance during solar flares can result in increased ionization, dissociation, and heating in the ionospheres of Earth-like planets [6, 7].
◦ Flare-associated XUV photons interact with and ionize neutral constituents of planetary atmospheres via photoionization, leading to heating and expansion of the neutral atmosphere [7].
Solar flares' effects on planets beyond Earth are relevant to understanding planetary atmospheres, habitability, and the search for life [1, 3]. The extent of these effects depends on various factors, including the intensity of the flare, the presence and strength of a planet's magnetic field, and the composition of its atmosphere [6, 9, 12].
The sources do not contain information about the role of AI in predicting solar flares. However, the sources do address solar flare prediction in general, as well as the prediction of space weather, and related phenomena.
Key points:
• Need for Prediction: Accurately predicting solar flares is important for protecting astronauts and technology in space and on the ground from hazardous space weather [1].
• Coronal Loops: Measuring brightness variations in coronal loops could signal oncoming flares 2 to 6 hours ahead of time with 60 to 80 percent accuracy [2]. An automated system could look for brightness changes in coronal loops in real-time images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory and issue alerts [3].
• Sunquakes: If sunquakes can be generated spontaneously in the sun, this might lead to a forecasting tool [4].
• Current Prediction Methods: Current methods of flare prediction are problematic, and there is no certain indication that an active region on the Sun will produce a flare [5]. However, many properties of active regions and their sunspots correlate with flaring [5]. Predictions are usually stated in terms of probabilities for the occurrence of flares [5].
• Space Weather Models: Space weather models are simulations of the space weather environment that use sets of mathematical equations to describe physical processes [6]. These models take a limited data set and attempt to describe all or part of the space weather environment to predict how weather evolves over time [6].
The "Gnevyshev–Ohl rule" describes a connection between pairs of solar cycles [1]. Specifically, for the summary index of solar activity over the 11-year cycle, there is a close connection in pairs of even and subsequent odd cycles, while opposite pairs exhibit no such connection [1].
Superflares are flares that are much stronger than any observed in the historical record [1]. Some research indicates the Sun may be capable of producing superflares, which could be 1,000 times stronger than any flares in the historical record [1]. However, other research indicates that superflares on our Sun are not likely [1].
Key aspects of superflares and their potential occurrence on the Sun:
• Definition: Superflares are significantly more intense than typical solar flares [1].
• Potential Impact: The damage from the most potent solar storms, including superflares, could threaten the stability of modern human civilization [1].
• Superflares on Other Stars: Proxy data from Earth and analysis of stars similar to the Sun suggest that superflares are possible [1].
• Conflicting Research: Models of solar flares and statistics of extreme solar events reconstructed using cosmogenic isotope data in terrestrial archives suggest superflares are not likely [1].
• Discrepancy: The discrepancy in the likelihood of superflares occurring on our Sun may be related to biased statistics of the stellar population of solar analogs [1].
Yes, solar flares are more frequent during specific phases of the solar cycle, particularly around the solar maximum [1-3].
Here's a breakdown:
• Solar Maximum: Large solar storms often occur during the solar maximum [1]. The frequency of solar flares is significantly higher during the solar maximum compared to the solar minimum [4]. At solar maximum, flares of any given size are about 50 times more frequent than at solar minimum [4].
• Solar Minimum: During solar minimum, solar flares are less frequent [4, 5].
• Solar Cycle Variation: The occurrence of solar flares varies with the 11-year solar cycle [2, 3]. It can range from several per day during solar maxima to less than one every week during solar minima [5].
• CME Frequency: Large coronal mass ejections (CMEs) occur on average a few times a day at solar maximum, decreasing to one every few days at solar minimum [4]. The peak CME occurrence rate is often 6–12 months after sunspot number reaches its maximum [6].
The greatest risk from solar flares, therefore, aligns with the period of solar maximum when these events are most frequent [1-5].
If a trillion US dollars were available to tackle the risks associated with solar flares, here’s a breakdown of how it could be allocated, the reasoning behind each investment, and whether that sum would be sufficient to offset the risks:
1. Enhanced Monitoring and Prediction Systems:
• Investment: $200 billion
• Steps:
◦ Advanced Satellite Constellations: Deploy a new generation of space-based observatories equipped with advanced sensors to monitor the Sun in real-time. These would improve the ability to detect and characterize solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) [1, 2].
◦ Ground-Based Observatories: Upgrade and expand ground-based observatories to provide complementary data and redundancy [1].
◦ AI-Driven Prediction Models: Develop sophisticated AI-driven models that can analyze vast amounts of data to improve the accuracy and lead time of space weather forecasts [3].
◦ Improved Indicators: Develop simpler, well-tested indicators ready for research and operations [4].
• Why: Accurate and timely predictions are crucial for mitigating the impacts of solar flares [3]. Enhanced monitoring and prediction systems would provide more lead time for protective measures.
2. Grid Hardening and Protection:
• Investment: $300 billion
• Steps:
◦ Transformer Protection: Replace or upgrade vulnerable transformers with those resistant to geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) [5].
◦ GIC Mitigation Devices: Install GIC mitigation devices on high-voltage transmission lines to prevent surges from damaging equipment [6].
◦ Grid Redundancy: Enhance grid redundancy to ensure continued operation during disruptions [6].
◦ Smart Grid Technologies: Implement smart grid technologies to automatically isolate and protect vulnerable sections of the grid [6].
• Why: Power grids are highly vulnerable to geomagnetic storms, which can cause widespread blackouts and long-term damage [6, 7]. Hardening the grid is essential for maintaining reliable electricity supply.
3. Satellite Protection and Redundancy:
• Investment: $150 billion
• Steps:
◦ Radiation Hardening: Develop and deploy satellites with enhanced radiation shielding to protect sensitive electronics [8, 9].
◦ Redundant Systems: Incorporate redundant systems in satellites to ensure continued operation during solar events [6].
◦ Rapid Deployment Capabilities: Establish rapid deployment capabilities for backup satellites to replace those damaged or lost due to space weather [1].
• Why: Satellites are critical for communication, navigation, and weather forecasting [10]. Protecting them from solar flare damage is vital for maintaining these services.
4. Communication Infrastructure Resilience:
• Investment: $100 billion
• Steps:
◦ Fiber Optic Expansion: Expand and harden fiber optic networks to provide more resilient communication channels [6].
◦ Alternative Communication Systems: Develop and maintain alternative communication systems, such as satellite phones and mesh networks, for use during disruptions [10].
• Why: Solar flares can disrupt radio communications, including critical military and emergency services [8]. Ensuring resilient communication infrastructure is essential for maintaining connectivity.
5. Research and Development:
• Investment: $100 billion
• Steps:
◦ Basic Research: Fund basic research into the fundamental physics of solar flares and space weather [11].
◦ Applied Research: Support applied research to develop new technologies and strategies for mitigating space weather impacts [11].
◦ Workforce Development: Invest in training and education programs to build a skilled workforce in space weather science and engineering [11].
• Why: Continuous research and development are essential for improving our understanding of space weather and developing more effective mitigation strategies.
6. Emergency Preparedness and Public Awareness:
• Investment: $50 billion
• Steps:
◦ Public Education Campaigns: Launch public education campaigns to raise awareness about the risks of space weather and how to prepare for it [12, 13].
◦ Emergency Response Plans: Develop and implement emergency response plans at the local, state, and national levels [13].
◦ Community Resilience: Support community-level initiatives to enhance resilience to space weather disruptions [13].
• Why: Informed and prepared individuals and communities are better able to cope with the impacts of solar flares.
7. International Collaboration:
• Investment: $100 billion
• Steps:
◦ Global Monitoring Network: Collaborate with international partners to establish a global network of space weather monitoring stations [11].
◦ Data Sharing Agreements: Establish data-sharing agreements to ensure access to space weather data from around the world [11].
◦ Joint Research Projects: Support joint research projects to advance our understanding of space weather and develop common mitigation strategies [11].
• Why: Space weather is a global phenomenon that requires a coordinated international response.
Is $1 Trillion Enough?
• For the USA: $1 trillion would make significant strides in protecting the USA from space weather impacts. It would likely be sufficient to harden critical infrastructure, improve monitoring and prediction capabilities, and enhance emergency preparedness.
• For the Whole World: While $1 trillion is a substantial sum, it may not be enough to fully offset the risks to the entire world. The cost of protecting global infrastructure and populations would likely require a much larger investment and sustained international cooperation.
Conclusion:
Allocating $1 trillion strategically across monitoring, infrastructure, research, and international collaboration would substantially mitigate the risks associated with solar flares. While it may not eliminate all risks, it would significantly enhance resilience and preparedness at both national and global levels.
Here's how individuals, companies, governments, militaries, and others can prepare for solar flare events to offset risks and repercussions, according to the sources:
Individual Preparedness:
• Emergency Supplies: Keep a supply of essential items such as a first aid kit, extra clothes, emergency food, water, and a space blanket [1].
• Stay Informed: Monitor alerts and warnings from space weather agencies like NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center [2].
• Communication: Have alternative communication methods available, as radio communications can be disrupted during solar flares [3, 4].
Company Preparedness:
• Risk Assessment: Assess the vulnerability of company infrastructure and operations to space weather events [5].
• Mitigation Strategies: Implement measures to protect critical assets, such as:
◦ For electric power grids, this includes preventing the inflow of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) through the neutral-to-ground connection [2].
◦ For satellite operators, protect satellites from damage and anomalies [6].
• Emergency Plans: Develop and maintain emergency plans to deal with potential disruptions caused by space weather events [2].
• Internet Service Providers: Prepare for potential internet outages, which can impact operations [2].
Government Preparedness:
• Monitoring and Prediction:
◦ Support space weather monitoring systems like NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory [6, 7].
◦ Improve forecasting capabilities to provide timely and accurate warnings [8].
• Infrastructure Protection:
◦ Implement operational standards to mitigate induction-hazard risks to electric power grids [9].
◦ Develop strategies for protecting communication and navigation systems [3, 4].
• International Collaboration:
◦ Work with international partners to monitor and respond to space weather events [6].
• Policy and Regulation:
◦ Enact policies to ensure preparedness and resilience of critical infrastructure [5, 10].
◦ Promote research and development of space weather mitigation technologies [5].
• Public Awareness:
◦ Raise public awareness about the risks of space weather and how to prepare for it [2].
• Coordination:
◦ Establish a Space Weather Economic Innovation Zone to manage risks [5].
◦ Improve coordination between data centers by connecting research and user communities to define user needs [5].
Military Preparedness:
• Communication Systems:
◦ Protect and harden communication systems, including high-frequency (HF) radio, to ensure reliable communications during solar events [3, 11].
• Early Warning Systems:
◦ Be aware that military detection and early warning systems operating in the high-frequency range can be hampered by radio clutter during geomagnetic storms [11].
• Submarine Detection:
◦ Account for the fact that geomagnetic storms can mask and distort signals used in submarine detection systems [11].
• Satellite Protection:
◦ Implement measures to protect military satellites from radiation damage and anomalies [12].
General Mitigation Strategies:
• Transformer Protection: Momentarily disconnect transformers to minimize damage to power transmission equipment [2].
• Preventive Measures: Prevent the inflow of GICs into the grid through the neutral-to-ground connection [2].
• Redundancy: Build redundancy into critical systems to ensure continued operation during disruptions [2].
• Shielding: Design spacecraft and habitats with radiation-shielded "storm shelters" for astronauts [13].
By implementing these measures, individuals, companies, governments, and militaries can significantly reduce the risks and repercussions associated with solar flare events.
Here's a breakdown of the primary interested parties, key stakeholders, and groups involved in understanding, tracking, and mitigating the effects of solar flares and space weather:
Key Stakeholders and Interested Parties:
• Space Weather Prediction Centers:
◦ NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC): Issues forecasts, monitors space weather events, and provides alerts to various sectors [1, 2].
• Research Institutions and Universities:
◦ Conduct research to understand the physics of solar flares, their origins, and their effects on Earth [2, 3].
◦ Develop models and prediction techniques [4].
• Space Agencies:
◦ NASA: Studies solar flares and space weather using observatories like the Solar Dynamics Observatory and provides data and analysis [5, 6].
◦ European Space Agency (ESA): Involved in missions and research to understand space weather phenomena [7].
• Commercial Space Weather Sector:
◦ Smaller companies that provide space weather data, models, and services to various sectors [4].
◦ American Commercial Space Weather Association (ACSWA): Promotes commercial engagement in space weather activities [8].
• Government Organizations:
◦ U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS): Concerned with the impact of space weather on critical infrastructure [8, 9].
◦ National Space Weather Program: Focuses research on the needs of affected commercial and military communities [1].
• Industries Affected by Space Weather:
◦ Aviation: Airlines and aviation authorities need to mitigate radiation risks and communication disruptions [10].
◦ Electric Power Grids: Power companies must protect infrastructure from geomagnetic induced currents (GIC) surges [8, 11].
◦ Oil and Gas Exploration: Companies using magnetic surveying techniques need to account for space weather disturbances [12].
◦ Satellite Operators: Companies operating satellites need to protect them from damage and anomalies [8].
• Astronauts and Space Missions:
◦ Need protection from harmful radiation associated with solar flares [6, 13].
• Scientific Community:
◦ Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate (JSWSC): Publishes research in the field of space weather [14].
◦ International Space Climate Symposia are organized to discuss space climate [15].
• Emergency Preparedness and Survivalist Communities:
◦ Individuals and groups focused on preparing for various disasters, including those related to space weather [16-18].
Who is Trying to Figure Out the Past?
• Researchers analyzing historical space climate data to reconstruct solar wind and heliospheric magnetic field strengths [14].
• Scientists studying historical records of geomagnetic storms like the Carrington Event and the 1921 storm [19, 20].
• Scientists analyzing ice cores and tree rings for evidence of past extreme solar events [21].
Who is Trying to Figure Out Solutions?
• Researchers: Developing prediction metrics and models to forecast solar flares and geomagnetic storms [2, 4, 22].
• Engineers: Designing resilient infrastructure that can withstand space weather impacts [8].
• Space Weather Service Providers: Companies that offer data, models, and services to mitigate space weather risks [4].
• Government and International Bodies: Coordinating efforts to improve space weather preparedness and response [1].
• The National Space Weather Program: Connects research and user communities to define user needs and improve coordination between data centers [1].
The Knights Round Table for Addressing Solar Flares:
If assembling a "Knights Round Table" to address solar flares and space weather, the group would include:
-
A Heliophysicist: Expert in solar physics and space weather, capable of explaining the science behind solar flares and their impacts [5].
-
A Space Weather Forecaster: From NOAA or another prediction center, skilled in predicting the likelihood and intensity of solar events [1].
-
An Electrical Engineer: Specializing in power grid resilience, able to develop strategies for protecting electrical infrastructure [8].
-
A Satellite Engineer: Knowledgeable about satellite design and protection measures [8].
-
An Aviation Safety Expert: Aware of the risks to aviation from space weather and strategies for mitigation [10].
-
An Emergency Management Coordinator: Experienced in disaster preparedness and response [17].
-
A Policy Maker: Able to translate scientific findings into actionable policies and regulations [8].
-
A Communications Specialist: Skilled in conveying complex information to the public and ensuring effective communication during space weather events [20].
-
A Representative from the Commercial Space Weather Sector: Provides insights into the needs and capabilities of the private sector [4].
This diverse group would combine expertise in science, engineering, policy, and communication to comprehensively address the challenges posed by solar flares and space weather.
Here's everything you need to know about solar flares, their impact on Earth, scenarios, preparation, and frequency, based on the sources:
What are Solar Flares?
• Solar flares are eruptions of electromagnetic radiation originating in the Sun's atmosphere [1].
• They occur in active regions, often around sunspots, where intense magnetic fields link the corona to the solar interior [2].
• Flares affect all layers of the solar atmosphere, including the photosphere, chromosphere, and corona [1].
• During a flare, plasma is heated to over 10 million Kelvin, and electrons, protons, and heavier ions are accelerated to near the speed of light [1].
How are Solar Flares Classified?
• Solar flares are classified using letters A, B, C, M, or X, based on the peak flux of soft X-rays measured by GOES satellites [3].
• The measurement is in watts per square meter (W/m²) in the 0.1 to 0.8 nanometre wavelength band [3].
◦ For example, an M5.8 flare has a peak flux of 5.8×10−5 W/m² [3].
• Flares are also classified by duration as either impulsive or long duration events (LDE) [4].
◦ The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) considers events lasting 30 minutes or more to decay to half maximum as LDEs [4].
◦ Belgium's Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence defines LDEs as events lasting over 60 minutes [4].
What Causes Solar Flares?
• Flares are powered by the sudden release of magnetic energy stored in the Sun's corona [2].
• This energy release can also produce coronal mass ejections (CMEs), although the exact relationship between CMEs and flares is not fully understood [2].
How Often Do Solar Flares Occur?
• The frequency of solar flares varies with the 11-year solar cycle [5].
• During solar maxima, several flares may occur per day, while during solar minima, there may be less than one per week [5].
• More powerful flares are less frequent than weaker ones [5].
◦ X10-class flares (severe) occur about eight times per cycle on average [5].
◦ M1-class flares (minor) occur about 2000 times per cycle on average [5].
How Do Solar Flares Impact Earth?
• Electromagnetic Radiation: The extreme ultraviolet and X-ray radiation from solar flares is absorbed by Earth's upper atmosphere, particularly the ionosphere [1]. This can temporarily increase ionization, interfering with short-wave radio communication [1].
• Radio Blackouts: The Space Weather Prediction Center classifies radio blackouts based on the peak soft X-ray intensity of the associated flare [6].
◦ R1 (Minor): M1-class flare [7]
◦ R2 (Moderate): M5-class flare [7]
◦ R3 (Strong): X1-class flare [7]
◦ R4 (Severe): X10-class flare [7]
◦ R5 (Extreme): X20-class flare [7]
• Ionosphere: During large solar flares, electric currents in Earth's dayside ionosphere can be strengthened, leading to a solar flare effect (sfe) or magnetic crochet [7].
What are the Health Impacts of Solar Flares?
• For astronauts in low Earth orbit, the expected radiation dose from the electromagnetic radiation emitted during a solar flare is about 0.05 gray, which is not immediately lethal [8]. However, particle radiation associated with solar particle events is of greater concern [8].
• On Mars, models suggest that energetic solar flares could deliver harmful or lethal radiation doses to mammals and other higher organisms on the surface [8].
What are Best and Worst-Case Scenarios?
• Best Case: Minor flares might cause slight radio interference but no significant disruptions [7].
• Worst Case:
◦ Extreme solar storms can cause large-scale power outages [9].
◦ Disrupt or blackout radio communications, including GPS [9].
◦ Damage or destroy submarine communications cables [9].
◦ Temporarily or permanently disable satellites and other electronics [9].
◦ Pose hazards to high-latitude, high-altitude aviation and human spaceflight [9].
◦ A Carrington-class event could cause widespread damage and disruption [9, 10].
◦ An "internet apocalypse" could occur due to damage to undersea cables [11, 12].
How Can We Prepare for Solar Flares?
• Monitoring:
◦ NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory observes coronal loops and their brightness variations to predict flares [13, 14].
◦ The Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) monitors the surface and interior of the Sun using helioseismology [15].
• Prediction:
◦ Scientists are working on methods to predict solar flares by examining magnetic fields and coronal loop features [16].
◦ Measuring brightness variations in coronal loops may signal oncoming flares 2 to 6 hours ahead of time with 60 to 80 percent accuracy [16].
◦ The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issues forecasts for the occurrence of M- or X-class flares [17].
• Protection:
◦ Automated systems could look for brightness changes in coronal loops in real-time images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory and issue alerts [14].
◦ Mitigation strategies can substantially reduce the hazards [18].
Historical Solar Storm Events
• The Carrington Event (1859): The first-observed solar flare coincided with a large geomagnetic perturbation [10].
• March 1989 Geomagnetic Storm: Caused the collapse of the Hydro-Québec power grid, leaving six million people without power for nine hours [19].
• Bastille Day Event (July 2000): An X5 class flare resulted in a geomagnetic super storm [19].
• Halloween Solar Storm (October-November 2003): Series of major flares and CME events caused multiple geomagnetic storms and damaged the Japanese ADEOS-2 satellite [20].
• May 2024 Solar Storms: Series of strong flares which provoked communication interruptions on Earth [21].
Understanding these aspects of solar flares is crucial for protecting technology and infrastructure from potential damage [14].