Drawing on recent work in Bayesian epistemology and predictive modelling, this project explores the conceputal underpinnings of the value of predictions as tool for epistemic justification in biomedical research.
Predictive value assessment is conceptually connected but distinct from risk of bias evaluation, uncertainty modelling, and many other excieting fields of epistemic research in bioethics, epidemiology, statistics and biomedicine in general.
Evidence E confirms hypothesis H relative to background K iff:
Prob(H/E & K) > Prob(H/E), where Prob is an epistemic probability function.
Goldman, Alvin I, and Matthew McGrath. 2015. Epistemology: A Contemporary Introduction. Oxford University Press.