Modelling the Forecast of Solar Energetic Particle Events Year 2

Solar energetic particles (SEP) are highly energized particles ejected from the sun during events such as coronal mass ejections (CME) and solar flares, which are phenomenon that can propel highly energized protons across the solar system. If those particles come into contact with the Earth’s ionosphere, the interaction can produce serious consequences such as geomagnetic storms, satellite damage, astronaut injury due to high dosage of radiation, and disruption of power grids. The purpose of this experiment is to determine how differing proton flux levels can affect the nature of CMEs and their estimated travel time to Earth by creating a mathematical model based on historical CME data. The hypothesis is if the proton flux levels of a specific CME is known, then the time it takes for that CME to reach the Earth can be calculated. The model was created by calculating relationships between proton flux levels of CMEs, acceleration, mass, and kinetic energy using data provided by the Solar Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and programming a forecaster that can determine the amount of time it would take a CME event to reach the Earth using the characteristics calculated. The hypothesis was proven correct; from historical data, it can be seen that CMEs will take 2 to 4 days to travel to the Earth; this has been proven for all SEP events between 10 to 10,000 MeV. Future research entails refining the model and comparing it to other existing forecasters.