- Li, J. (2020). A Robust Stochastic Method of Estimating the Transmission Potential of 2019-nCoV. arXiv preprint arXiv:2002.03828.
- Wu, J. T., Leung, K., & Leung, G. M. (2020). Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study. The Lancet.
- Imai, N., Dorigatti, I.,Cori, A., Riley, S., & Ferguson, N. M. (2020). Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus cases in Wuhan City, China. Imperial College London, 17.
March. 02. 2020
Simulating the Epidemic Process with estimated flow between provinces, adding individual quarantine effects.
Current Parameters:
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alpha: The rate at which an exposed person becomes infective. 1/7
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beta: The parameter controlling how often a susceptible-infected contact results in a new exposure. 0.65
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gamma:The rate an infected recovers and moves into the resistant phase.0.135
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R0:beta/gamma
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Mobility Factor: 85% meaning 85% of the peak flow between governments
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Simulation Starts with assumption: Hubei has one person get exposed to the virus at Day 1.
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Number of beds available for each province : this parameter subjective to many other variables' impact
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total population: 2018 census
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flow matrix between cities: simulation