predict-stock-price-arima

Predicting Stock Prices Using ARIMA Forecasting

Problem: Forecasting Stock Prices using Time Series Modeling

After the Gamestop fiasco with the subredit Wallstreetbets, I became very interested in doing a project with the stock market. The purpose of this project is to see if I can forecast stock prices using time-series modeling

Method: ARIMA

Data: Stock market prices from TDAmeritrade API

Libraries:

• numpy
• pandas
• statsmodels
• requests
• plotly
• matplotlib

Results

• The AIC of our mode is small at -20964.701. But does this equate to a good model? Probably not.
• If we check the errors (predictions - close price), the mean absolute error is approximately 6.8, which may lead to significant losses.
• At one point the model prediction was off by 144, these trades would have resulted in enormous losses.

Future Work

Accuracy is important. The goal in the future will be reducing the mean absolute error of the residuals