This shell tool is based on the PyManifold project. Displays a plot on how much you should bet on a manifold market given a subjective crecedence range. The betsize is calculated through the kelly criterion. If you have never heard about it, I recommend learning more about it. Here's some random article on it I enjoyed. Quickly hacked together. If I am still using this in the future I might merge pull requests.
Should work on linux and possibly macOS as long as git and python>=3.8 (including virtualenvironment for your python) are installed.
run:
git clone --depth 1 --recurse-submodules https://github.com/sonofhypnos/PlotKelly
cd PlotKelly
chmod +x install.sh
./install.sh./install creates a virtualenvironment and uses poetry to install dependencies.
run plot_kelly.sh and supply url, your bankroll on Manifold, upper, lower %-bounds for the plot and crecedence percentages.
Example:
./plot_kelly.sh https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-systemic-poverty-be-eliminated 800 1 100
- Add different markets?
- add plot for regular kelly formulam (even though is boring/linear)
- figure out implications that lending has on this.
- better explanation in the readme
$ poetry run pytest