updates

content/about.md

@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ My name is Thomas (he/him) and I am an MPhil student in Comparative Government a
 
 From 2020 to 2022, I served as a pre-doctoral fellow with J-PAL's [Payments and Governance Research Program](https://sites.google.com/ucsd.edu/pgrp/home?authuser=0). I received a Bachelor of Science in political science and data analytics from UC San Diego in 2020. 
 
-I have also served as a research assistant for the Center for the Study of African Political Economy and as a lab assistant for the [Center for Peace and Security Studies](https://cpass.ucsd.edu/). My CV can be found [here](/thomas_brailey_cv.pdf/thomas_brailey_cv.pdf).
+I have also served as a research assistant for the Center for the Study of African Political Economy and as a lab assistant for the [Center for Peace and Security Studies](https://cpass.ucsd.edu/). My CV can be found [here](/tb.pdf).
 
 I am broadly interested in three strands of political science: 
 

content/pubs.bib

@@ -0,0 +1,149 @@
+
+@unpublished{Brailey2024,
+abstract = {How do coups affect social trust? Recent years have seen a dramatic increase in the prevalence of coups, in particular across West Africa. Although significant attention has been paid to the effects of other forms of political violence and instability on social trust, to date very little research has considered how social trust is affected by coups, which represent a distinctive form of intra-elite conflict. Building on insights from work in philosophy and social psychology, we conceptualise trust as an adaptive response to vulnerability. Coups represent moments of violent competition for power between elites that create uncertainty about the state as a provider of security and essential services. Consequently, we argue that social trust will increase in response to coups, as a means of offsetting this uncertainty and insecurity. We exploit a unique natural experiment in Burkina Faso to identify the causal effect of coups on social trust, using data from a survey that was in the field during September 2022, when Burkina Faso experienced its second coup of that year. This provides robust evidence that coups can increase social trust, and further analysis supports the proposed mechanism that increased social trust following the coup was a response to uncertainty and insecurity. For external validity, analysis of cross-national survey data from the Afrobarometer series suggests that the positive relationship between coup exposure and social trust holds more broadly.},
+author = {Brailey, Thomas and Harding, Robin and Isbell, Thomas},
+booktitle = {Afrobarometer Working Papers},
+doi = {10.2139/ssrn.4802214},
+file = {:C\:/Users/thoma/OneDrive/Documents/unorganised pdfs/WP204-Coups-and-social-trust-Evidence-from-Burkina-Faso-Afrobarometer-1july24.pdf:pdf},
+mendeley-groups = {coups},
+number = {204},
+title = {{Coups and Social Trust: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Burkina Faso}},
+year = {2024}
+}
+
+@unpublished{Brodeur2024,
+author = {Brodeur, Abel and Mikola, Derek and Cook, Nikolai and Brailey, Thomas and Briggs, Ryan and {De Gendre}, Alexandra and Dupraz, Yannick and Fiala, Lenka and Gabani, Jacopo and Gauriot, Romain and Haddad, Joanne and Lima, Goncalo and Ankel-Peters, J{\"{o}}rg and Dreber, Anna},
+file = {:C\:/Users/thoma/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Brodeur et al. - Unknown - Mass Reproducibility and Replicability A New Hope.pdf:pdf},
+mendeley-groups = {my publications},
+title = {{Mass Reproducibility and Replicability: A New Hope}},
+year = {2024}
+}
+
+@unpublished{Brailey2023,
+author = {Brailey, Thomas and Hepplewhite, Matthew and Moser, Scott},
+booktitle = {SSRN Electronic Journal},
+doi = {10.2139/ssrn.4437368},
+issn = {1556-5068},
+keywords = {Matthew Hepplewhite,SSRN,Scott Moser,Thomas Brailey,conjoint experiments,replication,reproducible research},
+mendeley-groups = {replication games/nottingham,my publications},
+month = {apr},
+title = {{Direct Replication and Additional Sensitivity and Robustness Analyses for Frederiksen (2022): A Replication Report from the Nottingham Replication Games}},
+url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=4437368},
+year = {2023}
+}
+
+@article{Gannon2024,
+abstract = {Defense policy makers have become increasingly concerned about conflict in the “gray zone” between peace and war. Such conflicts are often interpreted as cases of deterrence failures, as new technologies or tactics—from cyber operations to “little green men”—seem to increase the effectiveness of low-intensity aggression. However, gray zone conflict could also be a case of deterrence success, where challengers adopt a constrained form of aggression in response to a credible escalation threat. We develop a model that formalizes both scenarios and identifies distinct empirical patterns across the two cases. We use the model's findings to empirically analyze Russian gray zone activity since the 1990s, finding that Russian activity appears, in part, to be restrained by NATO's deterrent threat. Our model also shows that developing gray zone conflict capabilities can lead to more peace but could also backfire and provoke a challenger to escalate to war.},
+author = {Gannon, J. Andr{\'{e}}s and Gartzke, Erik and Lindsay, Jon R and Schram, Peter},
+doi = {10.1177/00220027231166345},
+file = {:C\:/Users/thoma/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Andr´ et al. - 2023 - The Shadow of Deterrence Why Capable Actors Engage in Contests Short of War.pdf:pdf},
+issn = {15528766},
+journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
+keywords = {bargaining,conflict,game theory,international alliance,international security,militarized disputes,militarized interstate disputes},
+mendeley-groups = {war,my publications},
+month = {apr},
+number = {2-3},
+pages = {230--268},
+title = {{The Shadow of Deterrence: Why Capable Actors Engage in Contests Short of War}},
+url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00220027231166345},
+volume = {68},
+year = {2024}
+}
+
+@article{Gannon2023,
+abstract = {This article introduces a dataset on disaggregated national military capabilities from 1970 to 2014, drawn from the International Institute for Strategic Studies Military Balance. While practitioners have long recognized the importance of what weapons states own, scholars have largely examined surrounding questions in piecemeal fashion due to data limitations. The Distribution of Military Capabilities dataset identifies the weapons portfolios of states over the past half century at various levels of aggregation suitable to a wide variety of research questions. This paper begins by explaining the value of data on disaggregated national military capabilities, the data's scope, and the data collection process, including the creation of a new modular typology of weapons categories consistent across time and space. I then identify some initial trends about changes in the distribution of military capabilities and their implications for China's military rise. These data allow scholars to better investigate important questions concerning power projection, military innovation, conflict outcomes, the use of force decisions, and interest group lobbying.},
+author = {Gannon, J. Andres},
+doi = {10.1093/isq/sqad081},
+issn = {14682478},
+journal = {International Studies Quarterly},
+mendeley-groups = {war,my publications},
+month = {sep},
+number = {4},
+publisher = {Oxford Academic},
+title = {{Planes, Trains, and Armored Mobiles: Introducing a Dataset of the Global Distribution of Military Capabilities}},
+url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqad081},
+volume = {67},
+year = {2023}
+}
+
+@article{Muralidharan2023a,
+abstract = {Public employment programs may affect poverty both directly through the income they provide and indirectly through general equilibrium effects. We estimate both effects, exploiting a reform that improved the implementation of India's National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) and whose rollout was randomized at a large (sub‐district) scale. The reform raised beneficiary households' earnings by 14%, and reduced poverty by 26%. Importantly, 86% of income gains came from non‐program earnings, driven by higher private‐sector (real) wages and employment. This pattern appears to reflect imperfectly competitive labor markets more than productivity gains: worker's reservation wages increased, land returns fell, and employment gains were higher in villages with more concentrated landholdings. Non‐agricultural enterprise counts and employment grew rapidly despite higher wages, consistent with a role for local demand in structural transformation. These results suggest that public employment programs can effectively reduce poverty in developing countries, and may also improve economic efficiency.},
+author = {Muralidharan, Karthik and Niehaus, Paul and Sukhtankar, Sandip},
+doi = {10.3982/ecta18181},
+issn = {0012-9682},
+journal = {Econometrica},
+keywords = {India,NREGA,Public programs,employment guarantee,general equilibrium effects,monopsony,rural labor markets},
+mendeley-groups = {my publications},
+month = {jul},
+number = {4},
+pages = {1261--1295},
+publisher = {John Wiley & Sons, Ltd},
+title = {{General Equilibrium Effects of (Improving) Public Employment Programs: Experimental Evidence From India}},
+url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.3982/ECTA18181 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.3982/ECTA18181 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.3982/ECTA18181},
+volume = {91},
+year = {2023}
+}
+
+@unpublished{Faridani2022,
+abstract = {We study the problem of estimating the average causal effect of treating every member of a population, as opposed to none, using an experiment that treats only some. This is the policy-relevant estimand when deciding whether to scale up an intervention based on the results of an RCT, for example, but differs from the usual average treatment effect in the presence of spillovers. We consider both estimation and experimental design given a bound (parametrized by $\eta > 0$) on the rate at which spillovers decay with the ``distance'' between units, defined in a generalized way to encompass spatial settings, panel data, and some directed networks. Over all estimators linear in the outcomes and all cluster-randomized designs the optimal geometric rate of convergence is $n^{-\frac{1}{2+\frac{1}{\eta}}}$, and this rate can be achieved using a generalized ``Scaling Clusters'' design that we provide. Both results are unchanged under the additional assumption, implicit in recent applied studies, that potential outcomes are linear in population treatment assignments. An OLS estimator similar (but not identical) to those used in these studies is consistent and rate-optimal under linearity, and its finite-sample performance can be improved by incorporating additional information about the structure of spillovers. As a robust alternative, we also provide an optimized weighting approach that minimizes mean squared error when linearity holds while remaining consistent and rate-optimal when it does not. We also provide asymptotically valid inference methods.},
+archivePrefix = {arXiv},
+arxivId = {2209.14181},
+author = {Faridani, Stefan and Niehaus, Paul},
+eprint = {2209.14181},
+file = {:C\:/Users/thoma/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Faridani, Niehaus - 2022 - Rate-optimal linear estimation of average global effects.pdf:pdf},
+mendeley-groups = {metrics to the face,my publications},
+title = {{Rate-optimal linear estimation of average global effects}},
+url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.14181v2},
+year = {2022}
+}
+
+@article{Gannon2022,
+abstract = {New domains of military conflict, such as space and cyber, arguably increase opportunities for conflict across, as well as within, domains. Cross-domain conflict is thus seen by many as an emerging source of international instability. Yet, existing systematic empirical research has little to say about how domains interact. This study introduces a new dataset of the domains in which nations took military action during 412 international crises between 1918 and 2015. Analysis of these data yields several surprises. Far from being rare, cross-domain interactions are the modal form of conflict in crises during this period. Nor is cross-domain conflict “new”: crises that play out in more than one domain were about as frequent (proportionately) in decades past as they are today. Cross-domain crises are also less violent and of no greater duration than crises between belligerents using similar means. This study thus presents evidence that fears about cross-domain escalation are empirically unsubstantiated.},
+author = {Gannon, J Andr{\'{e}}s},
+doi = {10.1093/isq/sqac065},
+file = {:C\:/Users/thoma/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Gannon - 2022 - One if by Land, and Two if by Sea Cross-Domain Contests and the Escalation of International Crises.pdf:pdf},
+issn = {0020-8833},
+journal = {International Studies Quarterly},
+mendeley-groups = {war,my publications},
+month = {sep},
+number = {4},
+pages = {474--475},
+title = {{One if by Land, and Two if by Sea: Cross-Domain Contests and the Escalation of International Crises}},
+url = {https://academic.oup.com/isq/article/doi/10.1093/isq/sqac065/6713150},
+volume = {66},
+year = {2022}
+}
+
+@article{Gaikwad2021,
+abstract = {Migrants are politically marginalized in cities of the developing world, participating in destination-area elections less than do local-born residents. We theorize three reasons for this shortfall: migrants' socioeconomic links to origin regions, bureaucratic obstacles to enrollment that disproportionately burden newcomers, and ostracism by antimigrant politicians. We randomized a door-to-door drive to facilitate voter registration among internal migrants to two Indian cities. Ties to origin regions do not predict willingness to become registered locally. Meanwhile, assistance in navigating the electoral bureaucracy increased migrant registration rates by 24 percentage points and substantially boosted next-election turnout. An additional treatment arm informed politicians about the drive in a subset of localities; rather than ignoring new migrant voters, elites amplified campaign efforts in response. We conclude that onerous registration requirements impede the political incorporation, and thus the well-being, of migrant communities in fast-urbanizing settings. The findings also matter for assimilating naturalized yet politically excluded cross-border immigrants.},
+author = {Gaikwad, Nikhar and Nellis, Gareth},
+doi = {10.1017/S0003055421000435},
+issn = {15375943},
+journal = {American Political Science Review},
+mendeley-groups = {my publications},
+pages = {1--18},
+title = {{Overcoming the Political Exclusion of Migrants: Theory and Experimental Evidence from India}},
+url = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055421000435},
+volume = {115},
+year = {2021}
+}
+
+@article{Muralidharan2023b,
+    author = {Muralidharan, Karthik and Niehaus, Paul and Sukhtankar, Sandip},
+    title = "{Identity Verification Standards in Welfare Programs: Experimental Evidence from India}",
+    journal = {The Review of Economics and Statistics},
+    pages = {1-46},
+    year = {2023},
+    month = {02},
+    abstract = "{We study the impact of reforms that introduced more stringent, biometric ID requirements into India's largest social protection program, using large-scale randomized and natural experiments. Corruption fell but with substantial costs to legitimate beneficiaries, 1.5-2 million of whom lost access to benefits at some point during the reforms. At the same time, adverse effects appear to have been driven primarily by decisions about the way the transition was managed, illustrating both the risks of rapid reforms, and how the impacts of promising new technologies can be highly sensitive to the protocols governing their use.}",
+    issn = {0034-6535},
+    doi = {10.1162/rest_a_01296},
+    url = {https://doi.org/10.1162/rest\_a\_01296},
+    eprint = {https://direct.mit.edu/rest/article-pdf/doi/10.1162/rest\_a\_01296/2070051/rest\_a\_01296.pdf},
+}
+
+
+
+
+
+

content/research.md

@@ -37,3 +37,8 @@ Here is a list of my projects and works in progress. Comments and suggestions ar
 **Predicting Rogue State Missile Launches**
 * [Paper](https://github.com/tjbrailey/MissileTest/blob/master/paper/rouge_state_missiles.pdf) 
 * [Code](https://github.com/tjbrailey/MissileTest)
+
+## Other Publications
+
+## Papers I've RA'd On
+

content/tb.bbl

@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
+\begin{thebibliography}{10}
+
+\bibitem{Brailey2024}
+Thomas Brailey, Robin Harding, and Thomas Isbell.
+\newblock {Coups and Social Trust: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Burkina Faso}.
+\newblock 2024.
+
+\bibitem{Brodeur2024}
+Abel Brodeur, Derek Mikola, Nikolai Cook, Thomas Brailey, Ryan Briggs, Alexandra {De Gendre}, Yannick Dupraz, Lenka Fiala, Jacopo Gabani, Romain Gauriot, Joanne Haddad, Goncalo Lima, J{\"{o}}rg Ankel-Peters, and Anna Dreber.
+\newblock {Mass Reproducibility and Replicability: A New Hope}.
+\newblock 2024.
+
+\bibitem{Brailey2023}
+Thomas Brailey, Matthew Hepplewhite, and Scott Moser.
+\newblock {Direct Replication and Additional Sensitivity and Robustness Analyses for Frederiksen (2022): A Replication Report from the Nottingham Replication Games}.
+\newblock apr 2023.
+
+\bibitem{Gannon2024}
+J.~Andr{\'{e}}s Gannon, Erik Gartzke, Jon~R Lindsay, and Peter Schram.
+\newblock {The Shadow of Deterrence: Why Capable Actors Engage in Contests Short of War}.
+\newblock {\em Journal of Conflict Resolution}, 68(2-3):230--268, apr 2024.
+
+\bibitem{Gannon2023}
+J.~Andres Gannon.
+\newblock {Planes, Trains, and Armored Mobiles: Introducing a Dataset of the Global Distribution of Military Capabilities}.
+\newblock {\em International Studies Quarterly}, 67(4), sep 2023.
+
+\bibitem{Muralidharan2023a}
+Karthik Muralidharan, Paul Niehaus, and Sandip Sukhtankar.
+\newblock {General Equilibrium Effects of (Improving) Public Employment Programs: Experimental Evidence From India}.
+\newblock {\em Econometrica}, 91(4):1261--1295, jul 2023.
+
+\bibitem{Muralidharan2023b}
+Karthik Muralidharan, Paul Niehaus, and Sandip Sukhtankar.
+\newblock {Identity Verification Standards in Welfare Programs: Experimental Evidence from India}.
+\newblock {\em The Review of Economics and Statistics}, pages 1--46, 02 2023.
+
+\bibitem{Faridani2022}
+Stefan Faridani and Paul Niehaus.
+\newblock {Rate-optimal linear estimation of average global effects}.
+\newblock 2022.
+
+\bibitem{Gannon2022}
+J~Andr{\'{e}}s Gannon.
+\newblock {One if by Land, and Two if by Sea: Cross-Domain Contests and the Escalation of International Crises}.
+\newblock {\em International Studies Quarterly}, 66(4):474--475, sep 2022.
+
+\bibitem{Gaikwad2021}
+Nikhar Gaikwad and Gareth Nellis.
+\newblock {Overcoming the Political Exclusion of Migrants: Theory and Experimental Evidence from India}.
+\newblock {\em American Political Science Review}, 115:1--18, 2021.
+
+\end{thebibliography}